This market will resolve according to how much "The Social Reckoning" 2nd Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend.
Current leader
100%
100%
2 outcomes
Will "The Social Reckoning" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 1m and 2m?
Will "The Social Reckoning" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 2m and 3m?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 0%, down 3.1 percentage points from 3.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 3% → 0%
-3.1 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 0%, down 3.1 percentage points from 3.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 3.15% to 0% (-3.15 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T23:16:49.984Z to 2026-10-19T23:30:46.077Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 3.15% → 0%
Probability moved from 3.15% to 0% (-3.15 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 56 seconds apart: 2026-10-19 23:16:49 UTC to 2026-10-19 23:30:46 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 8.6% to 3.55% (-5.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T07:02:22.876Z to 2026-10-19T07:17:00.999Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 4.45% to 8.6% (+4.15 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T06:47:20.027Z to 2026-10-19T07:02:22.876Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 5.35% to 1.7% (-3.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T17:32:43.331Z to 2026-10-18T17:46:01.377Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 1.7% to 5.35% (+3.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T17:16:43.110Z to 2026-10-18T17:32:43.331Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 11% to 7.5% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T22:32:03.660Z to 2026-10-16T23:01:22.885Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 82.5% to 90.5% (+8 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T22:15:31.544Z to 2026-10-16T22:47:52.604Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Social Reckoning" 2nd Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers ( page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day second weekend (October 16 - 18) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both and have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Living timeline · 7 significant updates
Will "The Social Reckoning" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 2m and 3m? — probability falls to 0%
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