activeElectionsCloses Jan 1

Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Oct 18, 2026, 10:34 PM UTCEditorial method

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Current leader

14.5%

14%

Largest 24h move0.0 pp 24h

24h volume: $0
Liquidity: $11.8K
Scheduled close: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC

Top candidates

1 outcome

Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?
0.0 pp 24h14%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

SurgeMonitoring onlyOct 18

Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026? — probability rises to 16%

The tracked probability rose to 16%, up 4.0 percentage points from 12% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

Yes: 12% → 16%

+4.0 pp

Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 10:34 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 12% to 16% (+4 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T22:16:38.857Z to 2026-10-18T22:31:28.518Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 12% → 16%
What changed
Probability moved from 12% to 16% (+4 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 50 seconds apart: 2026-10-18 22:16:38 UTC to 2026-10-18 22:31:28 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
Coverage updated Oct 18, 2026, 8:04 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 17% to 13% (-4 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T19:45:35.242Z to 2026-10-18T20:01:32.936Z (UTC).

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.

If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Living timeline · 12 significant updates

Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026? — probability rises to 16%

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