Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.2 percentage points from 45.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.3%
The tracked probability rose to 46.3%, up 21.5 percentage points from 24.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Jakobi Meyers finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 26.45%
The tracked probability rose to 26.45%, up 23.2 percentage points from 3.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.2%
The tracked probability fell to 3.2%, down 42.4 percentage points from 45.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 26.45%
The tracked probability rose to 26.45%, up 21.5 percentage points from 4.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 10.95%
The tracked probability fell to 10.95%, down 5.1 percentage points from 16.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 24.2 percentage points from 27.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 8.3%
The tracked probability fell to 8.3%, down 4.1 percentage points from 12.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.7%
The tracked probability rose to 47.7%, up 36.1 percentage points from 11.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.2%
The tracked probability rose to 45.2%, up 42.4 percentage points from 2.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 49.85%
The tracked probability rose to 49.85%, up 46.8 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? — probability rises to 11.8%
The tracked probability rose to 11.8%, up 4.7 percentage points from 7.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?
- Plunge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 59.5%
The tracked probability fell to 59.5%, down 9.5 percentage points from 69% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 41.1%
The tracked probability fell to 41.1%, down 8.9 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Surge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 55%
The tracked probability rose to 55%, up 4.0 percentage points from 51% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 30.1%
The tracked probability fell to 30.1%, down 5.1 percentage points from 35.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 19? — probability rises to 72.5%
The tracked probability rose to 72.5%, up 11.5 percentage points from 61% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 30.5 percentage points from 33.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.75%
The tracked probability rose to 46.75%, up 13.6 percentage points from 33.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 15°C on October 19? — probability rises to 93.5%
The tracked probability rose to 93.5%, up 10.0 percentage points from 83.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Chengdu on October 19?
- Surge
Cowboys vs. Packers: 1H O/U 16.5 — probability rises to 100%
The tracked probability rose to 100%, up 71.0 percentage points from 29% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Cowboys vs. Packers
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 44-45°F on October 18? — probability rises to 82.5%
The tracked probability rose to 82.5%, up 29.5 percentage points from 52.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Austin on October 18?
- Plunge
Cowboys 1H Team Total: O/U 6.5 — probability falls to 0.45%
The tracked probability fell to 0.45%, down 5.5 percentage points from 6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Cowboys vs. Packers
- Surge
Will Slovan Bratislava finish top 8 in UCL league phase? — probability rises to 49.45%
The tracked probability rose to 49.45%, up 46.3 percentage points from 3.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Champions League: Team to Finish Top 8 in League Phase
- Plunge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 17.15%
The tracked probability fell to 17.15%, down 16.9 percentage points from 34% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.1 percentage points from 45.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.85%
The tracked probability rose to 25.85%, up 22.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 43.1%
The tracked probability fell to 43.1%, down 4.0 percentage points from 47.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability rises to 50.15%
The tracked probability rose to 50.15%, up 47.1 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $184 in October? — probability falls to 14.5%
The tracked probability fell to 14.5%, down 15.0 percentage points from 29.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 76%
The tracked probability fell to 76%, down 7.5 percentage points from 83.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 30.9 percentage points from 34.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 30.9 percentage points from 33.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 24.1 percentage points from 27.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.15%
The tracked probability fell to 3.15%, down 30.9 percentage points from 34.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026? — probability rises to 83.5%
The tracked probability rose to 83.5%, up 6.0 percentage points from 77.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability falls to 51.5%
The tracked probability fell to 51.5%, down 10.5 percentage points from 62% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next President of Germany?
- Surge
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 68.95%
The tracked probability rose to 68.95%, up 4.4 percentage points from 64.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
- Surge
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? — probability rises to 30.1%
The tracked probability rose to 30.1%, up 6.1 percentage points from 24% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Felix Protocol launch a token by ___ ?
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability rises to 60.75%
The tracked probability rose to 60.75%, up 4.0 percentage points from 56.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 44-45°F on October 18? — probability falls to 52.95%
The tracked probability fell to 52.95%, down 42.0 percentage points from 94.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Austin on October 18?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on October 18? — probability falls to 75%
The tracked probability fell to 75%, down 10.0 percentage points from 85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on October 18?
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 34%
The tracked probability rose to 34%, up 31.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.8%
The tracked probability rose to 24.8%, up 21.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.15%
The tracked probability rose to 45.15%, up 42.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 34.05%
The tracked probability rose to 34.05%, up 30.4 percentage points from 3.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Volume
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? — probability holds at 22.5%
Probability remained at 22.5%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $4.34 to $2,098.6522. The cause is not established.
Market: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.2%
The tracked probability rose to 45.2%, up 22.4 percentage points from 22.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.9 percentage points from 25.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader