activeSportsCloses Feb 28

UEFA Champions League: Team to Finish Top 8 in League Phase

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes in the top 8 of the final league phase standings of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League.

Current leader

3.4%

Largest 24h move+0.1 pp 24h

24h volume: $0
Liquidity: $49.4
Scheduled close: Feb 28, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC

Top candidates

1 outcome

Will Slovan Bratislava finish top 8 in UCL league phase?
+0.1 pp 24h3%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

PlungeMonitoring onlyOct 21

Will Slovan Bratislava finish top 8 in UCL league phase? — probability falls to 3.25%

The tracked probability fell to 3.25%, down 46.6 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

Yes: 50% → 3%

-46.6 pp

Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

Coverage updated Oct 21, 2026, 5:20 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.85% to 3.25% (-46.6 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:02:32.123Z to 2026-10-21T05:17:25.794Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 49.85% → 3.25%
What changed
Probability moved from 49.85% to 3.25% (-46.6 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 54 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 05:02:32 UTC to 2026-10-21 05:17:25 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
Coverage updated Oct 21, 2026, 5:05 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.25% to 49.85% (+46.6 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T04:47:12.589Z to 2026-10-21T05:02:32.123Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 19, 2026, 2:04 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.85% to 2.7% (-47.15 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T13:31:28.002Z to 2026-10-19T14:01:09.245Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 19, 2026, 1:35 PM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.15% to 49.85% (+46.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T13:00:29.070Z to 2026-10-19T13:31:28.002Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 19, 2026, 5:24 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 48.65% to 3.15% (-45.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T04:45:52.933Z to 2026-10-19T05:18:01.234Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 19, 2026, 4:49 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.15% to 48.65% (+45.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T04:30:04.529Z to 2026-10-19T04:45:52.933Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 19, 2026, 2:35 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.45% to 3.15% (-46.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T02:01:14.578Z to 2026-10-19T02:31:48.088Z (UTC).
Coverage updated Oct 19, 2026, 2:04 AM UTC
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.15% to 49.45% (+46.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T01:32:17.840Z to 2026-10-19T02:01:14.578Z (UTC).

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

Resolves Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes in the top 8 of the final league phase standings of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League.

Resolves No

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only matches played in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League will be considered. Qualifying rounds, the knockout phase play-offs, and all knockout rounds will not be considered. If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish in the top 8 of the league phase (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from doing so), this market will immediately resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase is canceled or is not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Read the complete resolution rules

If a listed club does not participate in, withdraws from, or is expelled from the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase, its market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Living timeline · 12 significant updates

Will Slovan Bratislava finish top 8 in UCL league phase? — probability falls to 3.25%

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