This market will resolve to "Yes" if CrowdStrike's net new ARR for the third fiscal quarter of 2027, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount.
Current leader
77%
77%
1 outcome
Will CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above $360M?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 73%, down 4.5 percentage points from 77.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 78% → 73%
-4.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 73%, down 4.5 percentage points from 77.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 77.5% to 73% (-4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T01:16:29.459Z to 2026-10-21T01:30:53.499Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 77.5% → 73%
Probability moved from 77.5% to 73% (-4.5 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 24 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 01:16:29 UTC to 2026-10-21 01:30:53 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 77.5% to 74.5% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T22:46:34.146Z to 2026-10-20T23:02:19.474Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 73% to 76% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T16:30:36.464Z to 2026-10-20T16:45:11.590Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 77.5% to 73% (-4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T16:17:06.887Z to 2026-10-20T16:30:36.464Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 75.5% to 78.5% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T09:00:50.944Z to 2026-10-20T09:17:30.377Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 75% to 79% (+4 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T06:16:27.753Z to 2026-10-20T06:32:36.419Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 76% to 79% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T03:00:44.884Z to 2026-10-20T03:21:30.605Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 77% to 74% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T21:21:40.916Z to 2026-10-19T21:31:01.579Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if CrowdStrike's net new ARR for the third fiscal quarter of 2027, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No".
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is CrowdStrike's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above $360M? — probability falls to 73%
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Will CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above __?
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PlungeWill CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above __?
SurgeWill CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above __?
SurgeWill CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above __?
SurgeWill CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above __?
PlungeWill CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above __?
PlungeWill CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above __?
SurgeWill CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above __?
PlungeWill CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above __?
PlungeWill CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above __?
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