This market will resolve according to the number of views the YouTube video "Lose 150 Lbs Together, Win $250,000" by MrBeast gets in the first 7 days after being posted.
Current leader
96.2%
96%
2 outcomes
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 150 million views on week 1?
Will MrBeast's next video get 200 million or more views on week 1?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 92.95%, up 3.4 percentage points from 89.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 90% → 93%
+3.4 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 92.95%, up 3.4 percentage points from 89.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 89.5% to 92.95% (+3.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T22:15:54.260Z to 2026-10-20T22:30:39.856Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 89.5% → 92.95%
Probability moved from 89.5% to 92.95% (+3.45 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 46 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 22:15:54 UTC to 2026-10-20 22:30:39 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 86.7% to 90.5% (+3.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T10:32:00.001Z to 2026-10-20T10:47:08.687Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 84.9% to 88.85% (+3.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T07:17:05.181Z to 2026-10-20T07:31:48.077Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 80.45% to 84.9% (+4.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T07:01:11.780Z to 2026-10-20T07:17:05.181Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 82.3% to 78.2% (-4.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T06:16:27.753Z to 2026-10-20T06:32:36.419Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 82.85% to 86.15% (+3.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T05:16:58.056Z to 2026-10-20T05:32:51.585Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 74.2% to 82.3% (+8.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T04:17:31.992Z to 2026-10-20T04:45:09.352Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the number of views the YouTube video "Lose 150 Lbs Together, Win $250,000" by MrBeast gets in the first 7 days after being posted. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source is not available at the end of the specified duration, this market will resolve according to most recent number of views available before the end of the specified duration. The resolution source for this is MrBeast's YouTube channel (, specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers only to the video "Lose 150 Lbs Together, Win $250,000" by MrBeast (see:.
Living timeline · 7 significant updates
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 150 million views on week 1? — probability rises to 92.95%
Keep exploring
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Surge# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? (Higher Brackets)
Plunge# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? (Higher Brackets)
Surge# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? (Higher Brackets)
Surge# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? (Higher Brackets)
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