Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31? — probability falls to 47.5%
The tracked probability fell to 47.5%, down 9.5 percentage points from 57% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 47.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 15.95%
The tracked probability fell to 15.95%, down 14.5 percentage points from 30.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 20.3 percentage points from 23.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 80.35%
The tracked probability fell to 80.35%, down 4.4 percentage points from 84.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Surge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.15%
The tracked probability rose to 47.15%, up 10.2 percentage points from 36.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.35%
The tracked probability rose to 46.35%, up 39.8 percentage points from 6.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 42.45%
The tracked probability fell to 42.45%, down 5.5 percentage points from 47.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 55.05%
The tracked probability rose to 55.05%, up 6.7 percentage points from 48.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
- Surge
Will Jalen Hurts have 199.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 16%
The tracked probability rose to 16%, up 10.5 percentage points from 5.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Rushing Yards
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.55%
The tracked probability fell to 41.55%, down 6.4 percentage points from 47.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability falls to 59.45%
The tracked probability fell to 59.45%, down 7.9 percentage points from 67.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Plunge
Will Nolan McLean win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 48%
The tracked probability fell to 48%, down 8.0 percentage points from 56% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 20.3 percentage points from 23.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 76.75%
The tracked probability rose to 76.75%, up 18.6 percentage points from 58.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 35.2%
The tracked probability fell to 35.2%, down 6.9 percentage points from 42.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 19.9 percentage points from 22.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 15.5 percentage points from 18.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31? — probability falls to 47%
The tracked probability fell to 47%, down 8.0 percentage points from 55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 31
- Surge
Will something leave Paper Rex in 2026? — probability rises to 49%
The tracked probability rose to 49%, up 20.5 percentage points from 28.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Players Will Leave Their Team in 2026?
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.85%
The tracked probability fell to 41.85%, down 6.3 percentage points from 48.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 21.3%
The tracked probability fell to 21.3%, down 7.9 percentage points from 29.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will "Please" be nominated for Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability falls to 42.5%
The tracked probability fell to 42.5%, down 6.0 percentage points from 48.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Animated Short Film Nominations
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 20.75%
The tracked probability fell to 20.75%, down 7.9 percentage points from 28.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 in October? — probability rises to 57%
The tracked probability rose to 57%, up 12.5 percentage points from 44.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability rises to 21.7%
The tracked probability rose to 21.7%, up 16.6 percentage points from 5.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 31.05%
The tracked probability fell to 31.05%, down 7.8 percentage points from 38.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Spread: Goiás EC (-5.5) — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 47.0 percentage points from 2.5% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Goiás EC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe - More Markets
- Surge
Will the biggest earthquake on October 19, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0? — probability rises to 96%
The tracked probability rose to 96%, up 7.5 percentage points from 88.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will the biggest earthquake be on October 19, 2026?
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability falls to 52.05%
The tracked probability fell to 52.05%, down 4.9 percentage points from 56.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will "The Blood of Dawnwalker" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 7.9 percentage points from 10.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.55%
The tracked probability rose to 24.55%, up 12.2 percentage points from 12.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch? — probability rises to 47.5%
The tracked probability rose to 47.5%, up 14.0 percentage points from 33.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Papertrade FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Surge
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $31.6B? — probability rises to 85.5%
The tracked probability rose to 85.5%, up 12.0 percentage points from 73.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above __?
- Plunge
Will Dalton Kincaid finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 22.5%
The tracked probability fell to 22.5%, down 6.0 percentage points from 28.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above $1.35B? — probability rises to 25.5%
The tracked probability rose to 25.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 22.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above __?
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.15%
The tracked probability fell to 38.15%, down 5.9 percentage points from 44.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 20, 2026? — probability rises to 82.5%
The tracked probability rose to 82.5%, up 5.5 percentage points from 77% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 17.75%
The tracked probability fell to 17.75%, down 15.5 percentage points from 33.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 12.15%
The tracked probability fell to 12.15%, down 4.9 percentage points from 17.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 24.3 percentage points from 25.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 30.45%
The tracked probability rose to 30.45%, up 14.5 percentage points from 15.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 23.8%
The tracked probability rose to 23.8%, up 16.2 percentage points from 7.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.9%
The tracked probability fell to 36.9%, down 6.9 percentage points from 43.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 6.55%
The tracked probability fell to 6.55%, down 6.8 percentage points from 13.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 6.55%
The tracked probability fell to 6.55%, down 6.8 percentage points from 13.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.95%
The tracked probability rose to 47.95%, up 38.3 percentage points from 9.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.95%
The tracked probability rose to 47.95%, up 41.9 percentage points from 6.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41%
The tracked probability fell to 41%, down 5.9 percentage points from 46.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader