This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player departs the listed team's active roster on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Current leader
49.5%
50%
2 outcomes
Will something leave Paper Rex in 2026?
Will Skuba leave NRG in 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 48%, up 4.0 percentage points from 44% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 44% → 48%
+4.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 48%, up 4.0 percentage points from 44% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 44% to 48% (+4 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:47:59.199Z to 2026-10-21T06:19:22.060Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 44% → 48%
Probability moved from 44% to 48% (+4 percentage points). Observations were 31 minutes 23 seconds apart: 2026-10-21 05:47:59 UTC to 2026-10-21 06:19:22 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49% to 44% (-5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T05:30:29.244Z to 2026-10-21T05:47:59.199Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 52.5% to 49% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T04:02:56.817Z to 2026-10-21T04:20:41.613Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 49% to 52.5% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T03:47:54.820Z to 2026-10-21T04:02:56.817Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 51.5% to 27% (-24.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T01:30:53.499Z to 2026-10-21T01:45:36.198Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 73.5% to 51.5% (-22 percentage points), from 2026-10-21T01:02:39.525Z to 2026-10-21T01:30:53.499Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 28.5% to 49% (+20.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T23:45:56.897Z to 2026-10-20T00:00:37.301Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 48.5% to 28.5% (-20 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T23:30:46.077Z to 2026-10-19T23:45:56.897Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player departs the listed team's active roster on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
For the purpose of this market, the listed player is considered to have "left" if they are officially removed from the listed team's active roster — including a transfer to another team, release, benching to inactive/reserve, loan to another team, retirement, or any other departure from the active lineup — as reflected on the team's Liquipedia page (.
The player being a stand-in for another team while still rostered does not by itself count. The change must occur on or before the deadline and be reflected in the resolution source. Once the departure appears in the resolution source, it must remain in effect for at least 48 continuous hours to be valid. This 48-hour period may finish after the deadline, so long as the departure itself occurred on or before the deadline.
If the change is reverted before 48 hours have elapsed, it will not count toward resolution. A name change or alias referring to the same player on the same team does not count as leaving. Temporary absence for a single match (with the player remaining on the roster) does not count.
If the listed team disbands, or the listed player and the team part ways because the roster is dissolved, this will count as the player leaving and resolve "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be Liquipedia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will something leave Paper Rex in 2026? — probability rises to 48%
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