Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) hit (HIGH) $155 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 41.5 percentage points from 8.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will MicroStrategy (MSTR) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $960 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 42%
The tracked probability fell to 42%, down 3.0 percentage points from 45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Boulaye Dia score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability rises to 45.2%
The tracked probability rose to 45.2%, up 41.9 percentage points from 3.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Plunge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 25.55%
The tracked probability fell to 25.55%, down 20.0 percentage points from 45.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
2H Spread: Eagles (-20.5) — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 46.3 percentage points from 3.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Panthers vs. Eagles
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.05%
The tracked probability rose to 24.05%, up 21.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Eli Stowers finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 23.1 percentage points from 26.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 47.0 percentage points from 2.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Spread: Chargers (-17.5) — probability rises to 49%
The tracked probability rose to 49%, up 45.9 percentage points from 3.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chargers vs. Chiefs
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.1%
The tracked probability rose to 24.1%, up 21.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 25.25%
The tracked probability rose to 25.25%, up 22.2 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Michael Mayer finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.25%
The tracked probability fell to 3.25%, down 23.0 percentage points from 26.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026? — probability falls to 36.5%
The tracked probability fell to 36.5%, down 15.0 percentage points from 51.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Surge
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $155 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 70.5%
The tracked probability rose to 70.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 67% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SpaceX (SPCX) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $355 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 60%
The tracked probability fell to 60%, down 4.5 percentage points from 64.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Kirill Marchenko record 30+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability rises to 43%
The tracked probability rose to 43%, up 6.5 percentage points from 36.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 30+ Goals
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 16? — probability rises to 93.5%
The tracked probability rose to 93.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 86.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Chongqing on October 16?
- Surge
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $348 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 55%
The tracked probability rose to 55%, up 43.0 percentage points from 12% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Apple (AAPL) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 2.7%
The tracked probability fell to 2.7%, down 47.3 percentage points from 50.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 16? — probability falls to 51%
The tracked probability fell to 51%, down 42.5 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Helsinki on October 16?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on October 16? — probability falls to 75.5%
The tracked probability fell to 75.5%, down 18.0 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Moscow on October 16?
- Plunge
Will Jakobi Meyers finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 2.85%
The tracked probability fell to 2.85%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will Viktoria Plzen finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential? — probability falls to 25.55%
The tracked probability fell to 25.55%, down 24.3 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: League Phase Largest Goal Differential
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on October 16? — probability rises to 90.3%
The tracked probability rose to 90.3%, up 9.0 percentage points from 81.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Chicago on October 16?
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 26.2%
The tracked probability rose to 26.2%, up 23.2 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.3%
The tracked probability rose to 45.3%, up 42.3 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Macklin Celebrini record 100+ points? — probability falls to 65.5%
The tracked probability fell to 65.5%, down 9.5 percentage points from 75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.7%
The tracked probability rose to 49.7%, up 46.7 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.5 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 22.6%
The tracked probability fell to 22.6%, down 25.5 percentage points from 48.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 3.25%
The tracked probability fell to 3.25%, down 46.7 percentage points from 49.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 16? — probability rises to 92.5%
The tracked probability rose to 92.5%, up 21.5 percentage points from 71% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Chengdu on October 16?
- Surge
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on October 19? — probability rises to 47.1%
The tracked probability rose to 47.1%, up 45.6 percentage points from 1.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Solana price on October 19?
- Surge
Will Noah Fant finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 50.15%
The tracked probability rose to 50.15%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will A.J. Brown have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 36.3%
The tracked probability rose to 36.3%, up 16.2 percentage points from 20.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Merrill Kelly win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 25.45%
The tracked probability fell to 25.45%, down 25.1 percentage points from 50.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
FC København vs. SC Braga: FC København O/U 3.5 Corners — probability falls to 0%
The tracked probability fell to 0%, down 9.5 percentage points from 9.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: FC København vs. SC Braga - Total Corners
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 41.85%
The tracked probability rose to 41.85%, up 38.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will OXY play for Cloud9 in 2027? — probability rises to 72%
The tracked probability rose to 72%, up 3.0 percentage points from 69% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: VALORANT Offseason: OXY Next Team
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.1%
The tracked probability fell to 17.1%, down 4.6 percentage points from 21.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.65%
The tracked probability rose to 49.65%, up 46.2 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Chet Holmgren lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 28.45%
The tracked probability rose to 28.45%, up 5.6 percentage points from 22.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 14.85%
The tracked probability fell to 14.85%, down 8.2 percentage points from 23.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 47.8%
The tracked probability rose to 47.8%, up 44.8 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 13.9 percentage points from 16.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 19.4 percentage points from 23.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Houston Rockets advance to the Western Conference Semifinals in the 2027 NBA Playoffs? — probability falls to 44.5%
Probability moved from 72.5% to 44.5%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $830.1347 to $2,137.1447. The cause is not established.
Market: NBA Playoffs: Team to advance to Western Conference Semifinals
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.55%
The tracked probability rose to 45.55%, up 42.5 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $58 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 73.5%
The tracked probability rose to 73.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 69% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Eli Stowers finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 26.1%
The tracked probability rose to 26.1%, up 23.1 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs