Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.1 percentage points from 25.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Nikita Kucherov record 40+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability rises to 26%
The tracked probability rose to 26%, up 10.0 percentage points from 16% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 40+ Goals
- Surge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 46.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.65%
The tracked probability rose to 17.65%, up 14.6 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 4.85%
The tracked probability fell to 4.85%, down 10.8 percentage points from 15.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 74%
The tracked probability rose to 74%, up 8.5 percentage points from 65.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Surge
Will LEVIATÁN make a roster change by December? — probability rises to 77.45%
The tracked probability rose to 77.45%, up 8.9 percentage points from 68.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Plunge
Will Adrian Kempe record 30+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability falls to 50%
The tracked probability fell to 50%, down 14.5 percentage points from 64.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 30+ Goals
- Surge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 45.05%
The tracked probability rose to 45.05%, up 38.0 percentage points from 7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.05%
The tracked probability rose to 48.05%, up 40.3 percentage points from 7.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.85%
The tracked probability rose to 49.85%, up 45.9 percentage points from 4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.1%
The tracked probability rose to 47.1%, up 43.8 percentage points from 3.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Jacob Young win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 7.75%
The tracked probability fell to 7.75%, down 17.5 percentage points from 25.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $336 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 41.5%
The tracked probability rose to 41.5%, up 15.0 percentage points from 26.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Apple (AAPL) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Inde Navarrette be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 88%
The tracked probability rose to 88%, up 6.0 percentage points from 82% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations
- Plunge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 30%
The tracked probability fell to 30%, down 12.0 percentage points from 42% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability falls to 13%
The tracked probability fell to 13%, down 11.0 percentage points from 24% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Plunge
Will AmaZulu be relegated from the 2026-27 South Africa Premiership? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 7.5 percentage points from 10.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: South Africa Premiership: Teams relegated (2026-27)
- Surge
Will Masyn Winn win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 64%
The tracked probability rose to 64%, up 5.5 percentage points from 58.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Deandre Ayton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 8.25%
The tracked probability fell to 8.25%, down 20.3 percentage points from 28.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 83.1%
The tracked probability fell to 83.1%, down 8.4 percentage points from 91.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.10 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 34.45%
The tracked probability fell to 34.45%, down 6.9 percentage points from 41.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $186 in October? — probability rises to 48.5%
The tracked probability rose to 48.5%, up 8.0 percentage points from 40.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability rises to 42.5%
The tracked probability rose to 42.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 38.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above $750? — probability rises to 23.5%
The tracked probability rose to 23.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 20.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above___?
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $179 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 0.45%
The tracked probability fell to 0.45%, down 4.7 percentage points from 5.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability rises to 45.5%
The tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 42.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next President of Germany?
- Surge
Will Dillon Dingler win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 28%
The tracked probability rose to 28%, up 4.5 percentage points from 23.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will A.J. Brown have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 36.3%
The tracked probability rose to 36.3%, up 16.2 percentage points from 20.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Will Noah Fant finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 50.15%
The tracked probability rose to 50.15%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on October 19? — probability rises to 47.1%
The tracked probability rose to 47.1%, up 45.6 percentage points from 1.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Solana price on October 19?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 16? — probability rises to 92.5%
The tracked probability rose to 92.5%, up 21.5 percentage points from 71% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Chengdu on October 16?
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 3.25%
The tracked probability fell to 3.25%, down 46.7 percentage points from 49.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 22.6%
The tracked probability fell to 22.6%, down 25.5 percentage points from 48.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.5 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.7%
The tracked probability rose to 49.7%, up 46.7 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Macklin Celebrini record 100+ points? — probability falls to 65.5%
The tracked probability fell to 65.5%, down 9.5 percentage points from 75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.3%
The tracked probability rose to 45.3%, up 42.3 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 26.2%
The tracked probability rose to 26.2%, up 23.2 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on October 16? — probability rises to 90.3%
The tracked probability rose to 90.3%, up 9.0 percentage points from 81.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Chicago on October 16?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on October 16? — probability falls to 75.5%
The tracked probability fell to 75.5%, down 18.0 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Moscow on October 16?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 16? — probability falls to 51%
The tracked probability fell to 51%, down 42.5 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Helsinki on October 16?
- Plunge
FC København vs. SC Braga: FC København O/U 3.5 Corners — probability falls to 0%
The tracked probability fell to 0%, down 9.5 percentage points from 9.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: FC København vs. SC Braga - Total Corners
- Plunge
Will Merrill Kelly win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 25.45%
The tracked probability fell to 25.45%, down 25.1 percentage points from 50.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 2.7%
The tracked probability fell to 2.7%, down 47.3 percentage points from 50.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will Viktoria Plzen finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential? — probability falls to 25.55%
The tracked probability fell to 25.55%, down 24.3 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: League Phase Largest Goal Differential
- Plunge
Will Jakobi Meyers finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 2.85%
The tracked probability fell to 2.85%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Surge
Watford FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC: O/U 8.5 — probability rises to 27.4%
The tracked probability rose to 27.4%, up 27.4 percentage points from 0.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Watford FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC - More Markets
- Surge
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Celtic FC: Celtic FC O/U 5.5 Corners — probability rises to 100%
The tracked probability rose to 100%, up 9.5 percentage points from 90.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Celtic FC - Total Corners