Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability rises to 39%
The tracked probability rose to 39%, up 23.0 percentage points from 16% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 13.05%
The tracked probability fell to 13.05%, down 5.7 percentage points from 18.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 88.2%
The tracked probability rose to 88.2%, up 11.8 percentage points from 76.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 28.9%
The tracked probability fell to 28.9%, down 5.9 percentage points from 34.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 17.05%
The tracked probability rose to 17.05%, up 5.5 percentage points from 11.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 23.6%
The tracked probability rose to 23.6%, up 3.6 percentage points from 20% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 35.75%
The tracked probability fell to 35.75%, down 5.9 percentage points from 41.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 22.8%
The tracked probability fell to 22.8%, down 5.5 percentage points from 28.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 26.1%
The tracked probability fell to 26.1%, down 4.5 percentage points from 30.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 25.1%
The tracked probability rose to 25.1%, up 22.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 62%
The tracked probability rose to 62%, up 4.3 percentage points from 57.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 25%
The tracked probability fell to 25%, down 5.9 percentage points from 30.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.3%
The tracked probability fell to 40.3%, down 5.8 percentage points from 46.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.85%
The tracked probability rose to 24.85%, up 17.3 percentage points from 7.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 28.5%
The tracked probability fell to 28.5%, down 5.9 percentage points from 34.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Colgate-Palmolive (CL) beat quarterly earnings? — probability falls to 37%
The tracked probability fell to 37%, down 8.5 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Colgate-Palmolive (CL) beat quarterly earnings?
- Plunge
Will "The Blood of Dawnwalker" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability falls to 0.6%
The tracked probability fell to 0.6%, down 3.4 percentage points from 3.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability falls to 9%
The tracked probability fell to 9%, down 4.0 percentage points from 13% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Noe Khlif qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability rises to 24.5%
The tracked probability rose to 24.5%, up 7.5 percentage points from 17% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Men's)
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34%
The tracked probability fell to 34%, down 5.7 percentage points from 39.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? — probability rises to 12.5%
The tracked probability rose to 12.5%, up 6.0 percentage points from 6.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?
- Surge
CD Riestra vs. CA Unión: O/U 7.5 — probability rises to 49.05%
The tracked probability rose to 49.05%, up 48.9 percentage points from 0.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: CD Riestra vs. CA Unión - More Markets
- Plunge
Naz Hillmon: Rebounds O/U 3.5 — probability falls to 93.5%
The tracked probability fell to 93.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 98.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries
- Surge
Exact Score: Sporting FC 3 - 3 AD San Carlos? — probability rises to 99.95%
The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 26.9 percentage points from 73.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Sporting FC vs. AD San Carlos - Exact Score
- Surge
Allisha Gray: Rebounds O/U 3.5 — probability rises to 99.95%
The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 7.5 percentage points from 92.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries
- Surge
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 71.5%
The tracked probability rose to 71.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 67% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?
- Plunge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability falls to 3.35%
The tracked probability fell to 3.35%, down 46.4 percentage points from 49.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 24.7%
The tracked probability rose to 24.7%, up 6.3 percentage points from 18.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 37.15%
The tracked probability fell to 37.15%, down 8.8 percentage points from 45.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 42.8%
The tracked probability fell to 42.8%, down 4.6 percentage points from 47.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability rises to 44.5%
The tracked probability rose to 44.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 41.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 2.6%
The tracked probability fell to 2.6%, down 24.5 percentage points from 27.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will "Please" be nominated for Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability falls to 44%
The tracked probability fell to 44%, down 12.5 percentage points from 56.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Animated Short Film Nominations
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.55%
The tracked probability fell to 17.55%, down 10.6 percentage points from 28.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 45.5%
The tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 38.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 45.5%
The tracked probability fell to 45.5%, down 14.5 percentage points from 60% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 in October? — probability falls to 54.5%
The tracked probability fell to 54.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 58% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Nolan McLean win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 43.5%
The tracked probability rose to 43.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 39% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October? — probability rises to 62%
The tracked probability rose to 62%, up 4.5 percentage points from 57.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 18.75%
The tracked probability fell to 18.75%, down 9.7 percentage points from 28.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability falls to 60.15%
The tracked probability fell to 60.15%, down 7.6 percentage points from 67.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34.8%
The tracked probability fell to 34.8%, down 9.6 percentage points from 44.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 11.6%
The tracked probability fell to 11.6%, down 5.5 percentage points from 17.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 20%
The tracked probability fell to 20%, down 9.0 percentage points from 29.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Surge
Will Twice release a song in 2026? — probability rises to 55%
The tracked probability rose to 55%, up 5.0 percentage points from 50.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which KPop groups will release songs in 2026?
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 16.45%
The tracked probability fell to 16.45%, down 16.5 percentage points from 32.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 41.65%
The tracked probability rose to 41.65%, up 36.6 percentage points from 5.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 28.35%
The tracked probability fell to 28.35%, down 9.5 percentage points from 37.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 30.65%
The tracked probability fell to 30.65%, down 4.7 percentage points from 35.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $132 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 41%
The tracked probability fell to 41%, down 9.5 percentage points from 50.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SK hynix (SKHY) hit Week of October 19 2026?