This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team achieves promotion from the Superettan (Sweden) to the Allsvenskan (Sweden) for the 2027 season at the conclusion of the current league season.
Leading outcome
0.4%
0%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 1.55%, down 45.3 percentage points from 46.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 47% → 2%
-45.4 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 46.9% to 1.55% (-45.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T23:30:07.578Z to 2026-10-18T23:47:07.325Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 46.9% → 1.55%
Probability moved from 46.9% to 1.55% (-45.35 percentage points). Observations were 17 minutes apart: 2026-10-18 23:30:07 UTC to 2026-10-18 23:47:07 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 48.05% to 45% (-3.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T18:17:03.867Z to 2026-10-18T18:31:05.893Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 1.45% to 47.15% (+45.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T12:00:48.099Z to 2026-10-18T12:30:07.637Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 47.1% to 1.45% (-45.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T03:30:27.328Z to 2026-10-17T03:47:07.762Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 2.45% to 47.75% (+45.3 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T19:03:02.404Z to 2026-10-16T19:16:59.587Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 47.05% to 2.45% (-44.6 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T03:34:35.290Z to 2026-10-16T03:48:26.058Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 2.45% to 47.05% (+44.6 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T03:17:35.924Z to 2026-10-16T03:34:35.290Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 45.8% to 2.45% (-43.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-15T21:16:59.067Z to 2026-10-15T21:31:35.733Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team achieves promotion from the Superettan (Sweden) to the Allsvenskan (Sweden) for the 2027 season at the conclusion of the current league season.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Official promotion is defined as a team clinching a place in the Allsvenskan (Sweden) for the 2027 season through their final standing in the Superettan (Sweden), via playoff victory, or by any other official league decision recognized by the Superettan (Sweden) and Allsvenskan (Sweden).
If the 2026 Superettan (Sweden) season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for promotion within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Superettan (Sweden) and Allsvenskan (Sweden). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.