This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Delaware.
Leading outcome
53.4%
53%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 53.4%, down 19.3 percentage points from 72.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 73% → 53%
-19.3 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 72.65% to 53.4% (-19.25 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T09:04:53.079Z to 2026-11-04T10:20:23.846Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 72.65% → 53.4%
Probability moved from 72.65% to 53.4% (-19.25 percentage points). Observations were 1 hour 15 minutes 31 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 09:04:53 UTC to 2026-11-04 10:20:23 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 65.5% to 70.55% (+5.05 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T08:17:59.888Z to 2026-11-04T08:47:57.070Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 62.35% to 65.5% (+3.15 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T08:05:30.498Z to 2026-11-04T08:17:59.888Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 92.65% to 62.35% (-30.3 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T07:48:57.106Z to 2026-11-04T08:05:30.498Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Delaware. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Delaware, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.