This market will resolve to the club that finishes the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League with the best goal differential.
Leading outcome
3.1%
3%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 50% → 3%
-46.9 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.95% to 3.1% (-46.85 percentage points), from 2026-11-02T16:40:35.961Z to 2026-11-02T21:38:35.797Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 49.95% → 3.1%
Probability moved from 49.95% to 3.1% (-46.85 percentage points). Observations were 4 hours 58 minutes apart: 2026-11-02 16:40:35 UTC to 2026-11-02 21:38:35 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 44.15% to 49.95% (+5.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T11:17:05.960Z to 2026-10-17T11:32:20.277Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 49.95% to 44.15% (-5.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T11:02:35.847Z to 2026-10-17T11:17:05.960Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.75% to 50% (+46.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T12:21:39.143Z to 2026-10-16T13:04:27.084Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 25.25% to 3.75% (-21.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T11:49:16.391Z to 2026-10-16T12:03:05.980Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 3.75% to 25.25% (+21.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T11:17:44.604Z to 2026-10-16T11:33:20.179Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 23.2% to 3.7% (-19.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T10:47:51.784Z to 2026-10-16T11:04:27.542Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 46.1% to 23.2% (-22.9 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T10:17:58.736Z to 2026-10-16T10:47:51.784Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to the club that finishes the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League with the best goal differential. Only matches played in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League will be considered. Qualifying rounds, the play-off round, the knockout phase play-offs, and all knockout rounds will not be considered.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the club that scored the most total goals in the league phase. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the club that is listed first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League league phase is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed matches.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
If the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League league phase is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.