Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: Eintracht Frankfurt O/U 5.5 — probability rises to 22.5%
The tracked probability rose to 22.5%, up 5.1 percentage points from 17.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln - More Markets
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 9%
The tracked probability fell to 9%, down 10.6 percentage points from 19.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Drake Maye finish as a top-12 QB in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 87.25%
The tracked probability rose to 87.25%, up 12.3 percentage points from 74.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring QBs
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 45.5%
The tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 6.1 percentage points from 39.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 23.0 percentage points from 26.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Masyn Winn win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 68%
The tracked probability rose to 68%, up 5.5 percentage points from 62.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 5.25%
The tracked probability fell to 5.25%, down 10.2 percentage points from 15.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.2 on October 16, 2026? — probability falls to 81%
The tracked probability fell to 81%, down 7.0 percentage points from 88% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?
- Plunge
Will Tina Pisnik reach the Final of the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability falls to 21%
The tracked probability fell to 21%, down 4.5 percentage points from 25.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: To Reach the Final (Women's)
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 11.85%
The tracked probability fell to 11.85%, down 3.3 percentage points from 15.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $186 in October? — probability rises to 45%
The tracked probability rose to 45%, up 6.5 percentage points from 38.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.35%
The tracked probability fell to 40.35%, down 5.1 percentage points from 45.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.7 percentage points from 49.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 73.95%
The tracked probability rose to 73.95%, up 3.9 percentage points from 70.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $68 in October? — probability falls to 45.5%
The tracked probability fell to 45.5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 50.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.6 on October 16, 2026? — probability rises to 96.5%
The tracked probability rose to 96.5%, up 6.1 percentage points from 90.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 16?
- Surge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 37%
The tracked probability rose to 37%, up 5.5 percentage points from 31.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Surge
Will Jalen Hurts have 2,999.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 30.5%
The tracked probability rose to 30.5%, up 10.0 percentage points from 20.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards
- Surge
Will FUT Esports Win an International Event in 2026? — probability rises to 49%
The tracked probability rose to 49%, up 21.1 percentage points from 27.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Valorant Team to Win an International in 2026
- Surge
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $55 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 30.2%
The tracked probability rose to 30.2%, up 28.6 percentage points from 1.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 33.6%
The tracked probability fell to 33.6%, down 10.8 percentage points from 44.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 24.05%
The tracked probability rose to 24.05%, up 20.4 percentage points from 3.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Shanghai Port be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 22.65%
The tracked probability rose to 22.65%, up 20.1 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $165 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 10.0 percentage points from 10% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25%
The tracked probability rose to 25%, up 22.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (HIGH) $171 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 49.5 percentage points from 49.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SK hynix (SKHY) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 0%
The tracked probability fell to 0%, down 7.4 percentage points from 7.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability rises to 23.85%
The tracked probability rose to 23.85%, up 20.5 percentage points from 3.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Meta (META) close at $700-$710 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? — probability rises to 99.95%
The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 13.8 percentage points from 86.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Meta (META) closes week of Oct 12 at ___?
- Plunge
Will SpaceX (SPCX) close at $140-$145 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 90.0 percentage points from 90.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: SpaceX (SPCX) closes week of Oct 12 at ___?
- Surge
Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above $710? — probability rises to 22.35%
The tracked probability rose to 22.35%, up 15.7 percentage points from 6.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above___?
- Plunge
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $520-$530 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? — probability falls to 50.5%
The tracked probability fell to 50.5%, down 43.5 percentage points from 94% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Microsoft (MSFT) closes week of Oct 12 at ___?
- Surge
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of October 12 above $530? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 45.0 percentage points from 5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of October 12 above___?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on October 16? — probability rises to 97.8%
The tracked probability rose to 97.8%, up 4.9 percentage points from 92.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Chicago on October 16?
- Surge
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $530 on October 16? — probability rises to 50.55%
The tracked probability rose to 50.55%, up 48.0 percentage points from 2.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on October 16?
- Plunge
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $355 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 3.6 percentage points from 3.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.05%
The tracked probability rose to 25.05%, up 22.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 46.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 50.3%
The tracked probability rose to 50.3%, up 47.3 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 46.0 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Meta (META) close above $720 on October 16? — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 4.4 percentage points from 4.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Meta (META) closes above ___ on October 16?
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 47.3 percentage points from 2.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Spread: AC Goianiense (-5.5) — probability falls to 8.5%
The tracked probability fell to 8.5%, down 4.1 percentage points from 12.65% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: AA Ponte Preta vs. AC Goianiense - More Markets
- Surge
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $50? — probability rises to 99.85%
The tracked probability rose to 99.85%, up 10.1 percentage points from 89.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above___?
- Plunge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability falls to 42.5%
The tracked probability fell to 42.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 46% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $375 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 45%
The tracked probability rose to 45%, up 41.1 percentage points from 3.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Dillon Dingler win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 60.5%
The tracked probability rose to 60.5%, up 6.5 percentage points from 54% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.25%
The tracked probability fell to 36.25%, down 6.1 percentage points from 42.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 22.75%
The tracked probability rose to 22.75%, up 19.3 percentage points from 3.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader