This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday).
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $520-$530 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyProbability moved from 50.5% to 99.95%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume was $2,010; its earlier value is unavailable. The cause is not established.
Yes: 51% → 100%
+49.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedProbability moved from 50.5% to 99.95%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume was $2,010; its earlier value is unavailable. The cause is not established.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 50.5% to 99.95% (+49.45 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T20:00:58.117Z to 2026-10-16T20:16:33.249Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 50.5% → 99.95%
Probability moved from 50.5% to 99.95% (+49.45 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 35 seconds apart: 2026-10-16 20:00:58 UTC to 2026-10-16 20:16:33 UTC. The move also met PolySays' high-volume-shock threshold. Reported rolling 24-hour volume was $2,010; its earlier value is unavailable.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 94% to 50.5% (-43.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T19:47:11.281Z to 2026-10-16T20:00:58.117Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 89.5% to 94% (+4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T18:45:08.219Z to 2026-10-16T19:16:59.587Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.
If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price.
If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) available at.
Living timeline · 3 significant updates
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $520-$530 on the final day of trading of the week of Oct 12 – Oct 16? — probability rises to 99.95%
Keep exploring
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