Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability rises to 43%
The tracked probability rose to 43%, up 7.0 percentage points from 36% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Plunge
Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above $1.35B? — probability falls to 22%
The tracked probability fell to 22%, down 3.5 percentage points from 25.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above __?
- Plunge
Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 78.45%
The tracked probability fell to 78.45%, down 14.6 percentage points from 93.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability rises to 19.5%
The tracked probability rose to 19.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 16% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Michal Sadílek record the most assists in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? — probability rises to 19.6%
The tracked probability rose to 19.6%, up 16.7 percentage points from 2.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Champions League: Most Assists 2026-27
- Surge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability rises to 50.15%
The tracked probability rose to 50.15%, up 47.1 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Plunge
Will Türkiye be relegated from Nations League A in 2026-27? — probability falls to 73.5%
The tracked probability fell to 73.5%, down 14.0 percentage points from 87.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Nations League A: Teams relegated (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 24.7%
The tracked probability fell to 24.7%, down 24.6 percentage points from 49.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 30.15%
The tracked probability rose to 30.15%, up 16.7 percentage points from 13.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 50.15%
The tracked probability rose to 50.15%, up 47.1 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Surge
Will Randal Kolo Muani score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability rises to 28%
The tracked probability rose to 28%, up 22.9 percentage points from 5.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 46.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on October 20? — probability rises to 93.5%
The tracked probability rose to 93.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 89% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Chengdu on October 20?
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 29.25%
The tracked probability rose to 29.25%, up 25.7 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 2.6%
The tracked probability fell to 2.6%, down 46.7 percentage points from 49.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Houston Rockets advance to the Western Conference Semifinals in the 2027 NBA Playoffs? — probability rises to 69%
The tracked probability rose to 69%, up 24.5 percentage points from 44.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA Playoffs: Team to advance to Western Conference Semifinals
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 2.3%
The tracked probability fell to 2.3%, down 47.1 percentage points from 49.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.85%
The tracked probability rose to 49.85%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Sporting Cristal be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Ankara be 1°C on October 20? — probability rises to 92%
The tracked probability rose to 92%, up 11.5 percentage points from 80.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Ankara on October 20?
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.8%
The tracked probability rose to 24.8%, up 21.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on October 19? — probability falls to 95.35%
The tracked probability fell to 95.35%, down 3.5 percentage points from 98.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Cape Town on October 19?
- Volume
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on September 20? — probability falls to 0.45%
Probability moved from 1.1% to 0.45%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $858.3244 to $5,993.9144. The cause is not established.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Plunge
Will [link omitted], Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 78%
The tracked probability fell to 78%, down 5.5 percentage points from 83.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 50.05%
The tracked probability rose to 50.05%, up 47.7 percentage points from 2.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 26.6%
The tracked probability rose to 26.6%, up 12.9 percentage points from 13.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.6%
The tracked probability rose to 49.6%, up 46.6 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.55%
The tracked probability rose to 49.55%, up 46.6 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 46.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.3%
The tracked probability rose to 49.3%, up 46.3 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 27.25%
The tracked probability rose to 27.25%, up 24.7 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.3%
The tracked probability rose to 49.3%, up 36.2 percentage points from 13.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 30.85%
The tracked probability fell to 30.85%, down 6.6 percentage points from 37.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Caleb Williams have 3,500+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 45%
The tracked probability rose to 45%, up 20.5 percentage points from 24.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 3,500+ Passing Yards
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 22.1%
The tracked probability fell to 22.1%, down 6.7 percentage points from 28.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 20? — probability rises to 74.5%
The tracked probability rose to 74.5%, up 24.0 percentage points from 50.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 20?
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.65%
The tracked probability rose to 49.65%, up 46.2 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 22.9%
The tracked probability fell to 22.9%, down 6.8 percentage points from 29.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25%
The tracked probability rose to 25%, up 21.9 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 50.05%
The tracked probability rose to 50.05%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 81.35%
The tracked probability rose to 81.35%, up 4.0 percentage points from 77.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 in October? — probability falls to 55%
The tracked probability fell to 55%, down 4.0 percentage points from 59% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 51.5%
The tracked probability rose to 51.5%, up 14.0 percentage points from 37.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability falls to 68%
The tracked probability fell to 68%, down 3.4 percentage points from 71.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 19.75%
The tracked probability fell to 19.75%, down 18.3 percentage points from 38.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 27.1%
The tracked probability fell to 27.1%, down 7.7 percentage points from 34.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability rises to 61%
The tracked probability rose to 61%, up 14.5 percentage points from 46.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.8%
The tracked probability rose to 46.8%, up 41.4 percentage points from 5.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 45.95%
The tracked probability rose to 45.95%, up 41.5 percentage points from 4.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader