Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 22, 2026? — probability falls to 89.5%
The tracked probability fell to 89.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 93% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
- Surge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability rises to 66.95%
The tracked probability rose to 66.95%, up 5.6 percentage points from 61.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Plunge
Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026? — probability falls to 66.4%
The tracked probability fell to 66.4%, down 4.1 percentage points from 70.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 42.3 percentage points from 7.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Wadi Degla SC vs. National Bank of Egypt Club: National Bank of Egypt Club O/U 3.5 — probability rises to 47.65%
The tracked probability rose to 47.65%, up 13.8 percentage points from 33.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Wadi Degla SC vs. National Bank of Egypt Club - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 27.4%
The tracked probability fell to 27.4%, down 7.3 percentage points from 34.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability rises to 62.5%
The tracked probability rose to 62.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 59.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.95%
The tracked probability rose to 48.95%, up 42.5 percentage points from 6.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 57.5%
The tracked probability rose to 57.5%, up 4.7 percentage points from 52.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 35.95%
The tracked probability rose to 35.95%, up 17.9 percentage points from 18% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will the biggest earthquake on October 19, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0? — probability rises to 99.45%
The tracked probability rose to 99.45%, up 3.0 percentage points from 96.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will the biggest earthquake be on October 19, 2026?
- Surge
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate ann… — probability rises to 62.65%
The tracked probability rose to 62.65%, up 4.6 percentage points from 58.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Bank of Canada Decision in October?
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 16.85%
The tracked probability fell to 16.85%, down 11.7 percentage points from 28.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 15.55%
The tracked probability rose to 15.55%, up 9.0 percentage points from 6.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31? — probability falls to 59.5%
The tracked probability fell to 59.5%, down 5.5 percentage points from 65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 31
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 67.95%
The tracked probability rose to 67.95%, up 4.7 percentage points from 63.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 27.4%
The tracked probability fell to 27.4%, down 7.4 percentage points from 34.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 25.55%
The tracked probability fell to 25.55%, down 9.7 percentage points from 35.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 28.4%
The tracked probability fell to 28.4%, down 5.2 percentage points from 33.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 25.25%
The tracked probability fell to 25.25%, down 7.4 percentage points from 32.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch? — probability falls to 36.5%
The tracked probability fell to 36.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 43.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Papertrade FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 37.75%
The tracked probability fell to 37.75%, down 7.0 percentage points from 44.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.2%
The tracked probability rose to 45.2%, up 42.2 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 46.8 percentage points from 3.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 46.4 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.6%
The tracked probability rose to 49.6%, up 46.6 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 47.0 percentage points from 2.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.7 percentage points from 49.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. Psim Yogyakarta: O/U 8.5 — probability falls to 0.4%
The tracked probability fell to 0.4%, down 47.9 percentage points from 48.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. Psim Yogyakarta - More Markets
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Ankara be 1°C on October 20? — probability falls to 54%
The tracked probability fell to 54%, down 28.5 percentage points from 82.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Ankara on October 20?
- Plunge
Spread: Psim Yogyakarta (-3.5) — probability falls to 0.75%
The tracked probability fell to 0.75%, down 49.1 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. Psim Yogyakarta - More Markets
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 20? — probability rises to 96%
The tracked probability rose to 96%, up 17.0 percentage points from 79% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 20?
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 20? — probability falls to 94.4%
The tracked probability fell to 94.4%, down 4.0 percentage points from 98.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Tokyo on October 20?
- Surge
Spread: Persijap Jepara (-3.5) — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 49.6 percentage points from 0.3% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Dewa United vs. Persijap Jepara - More Markets
- Surge
Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs. Reynolds/Watt: Total Sets O/U 2.5 — probability rises to 99.5%
The tracked probability rose to 99.5%, up 8.5 percentage points from 91% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lyon Open (Doubles): Nys/Roger-Vasselin vs Reynolds/Watt
- Plunge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 21.3 percentage points from 24.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 21.9 percentage points from 24.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 23.35%
The tracked probability rose to 23.35%, up 20.4 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.55%
The tracked probability rose to 45.55%, up 42.5 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 22.95%
The tracked probability rose to 22.95%, up 20.2 percentage points from 2.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Surge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability rises to 46.6%
The tracked probability rose to 46.6%, up 43.3 percentage points from 3.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Plunge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 21.8 percentage points from 24.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Sporting Cristal be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 22.6 percentage points from 25.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 21.75%
The tracked probability fell to 21.75%, down 19.3 percentage points from 41.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.85%
The tracked probability fell to 40.85%, down 5.7 percentage points from 46.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader