This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
Current leader
67.3%
67%
2 outcomes
Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?
Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 66.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 70.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 70% → 67%
-3.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 66.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 70.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 70.05% to 66.5% (-3.55 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T17:17:53.815Z to 2026-10-20T17:31:56.258Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 70.05% → 66.5%
Probability moved from 70.05% to 66.5% (-3.55 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 2 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 17:17:53 UTC to 2026-10-20 17:31:56 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 69.6% to 66.5% (-3.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T13:46:59.633Z to 2026-10-20T14:00:04.954Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 70.5% to 66.4% (-4.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T12:01:26.940Z to 2026-10-20T12:17:29.644Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 24.65% to 28.8% (+4.15 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T13:00:29.070Z to 2026-10-19T13:31:28.002Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 62.05% to 68.15% (+6.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T12:32:54.459Z to 2026-10-19T13:00:29.070Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 38.85% to 24.65% (-14.2 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T12:32:54.459Z to 2026-10-19T13:00:29.070Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (, currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Living timeline · 6 significant updates
Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026? — probability falls to 66.5%
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