Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $44 in October? — probability falls to 26.25%
The tracked probability fell to 26.25%, down 4.4 percentage points from 30.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.55%
The tracked probability rose to 49.55%, up 40.6 percentage points from 8.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability rises to 55.8%
The tracked probability rose to 55.8%, up 3.2 percentage points from 52.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability falls to 44.5%
The tracked probability fell to 44.5%, down 12.5 percentage points from 57% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 72.75%
The tracked probability fell to 72.75%, down 7.2 percentage points from 79.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 7%
The tracked probability fell to 7%, down 6.5 percentage points from 13.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Fnatic make a roster change by December? — probability falls to 87.65%
The tracked probability fell to 87.65%, down 5.5 percentage points from 93.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 8.9%
The tracked probability fell to 8.9%, down 6.2 percentage points from 15.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 23.85%
The tracked probability fell to 23.85%, down 6.3 percentage points from 30.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy A… — probability falls to 35%
The tracked probability fell to 35%, down 7.5 percentage points from 42.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 28.2%
The tracked probability rose to 28.2%, up 17.8 percentage points from 10.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 47.5%
The tracked probability rose to 47.5%, up 9.0 percentage points from 38.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability falls to 58.45%
The tracked probability fell to 58.45%, down 8.3 percentage points from 66.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on October 19? — probability rises to 96%
The tracked probability rose to 96%, up 8.5 percentage points from 87.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in London on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Perpl launch a token by December 31, 2027? — probability falls to 28%
The tracked probability fell to 28%, down 8.5 percentage points from 36.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Perpl launch a token by ___?
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 81.25%
The tracked probability rose to 81.25%, up 4.9 percentage points from 76.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability rises to 41%
The tracked probability rose to 41%, up 31.5 percentage points from 9.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 30.25%
The tracked probability fell to 30.25%, down 7.5 percentage points from 37.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 8.2%
The tracked probability fell to 8.2%, down 7.4 percentage points from 15.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 4.85%
The tracked probability fell to 4.85%, down 7.3 percentage points from 12.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 18.3%
The tracked probability rose to 18.3%, up 8.8 percentage points from 9.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 10.1%
The tracked probability fell to 10.1%, down 3.0 percentage points from 13.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October? — probability falls to 52.5%
The tracked probability fell to 52.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 56% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Surge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 22.9%
The tracked probability rose to 22.9%, up 19.8 percentage points from 3.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 7.6%
The tracked probability fell to 7.6%, down 7.5 percentage points from 15.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 41.05%
The tracked probability rose to 41.05%, up 21.8 percentage points from 19.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability falls to 33%
The tracked probability fell to 33%, down 4.0 percentage points from 37% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Twice release a song in 2026? — probability rises to 65.05%
The tracked probability rose to 65.05%, up 10.0 percentage points from 55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which KPop groups will release songs in 2026?
- Surge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 39%
The tracked probability rose to 39%, up 32.8 percentage points from 6.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $170 in October? — probability rises to 21%
The tracked probability rose to 21%, up 3.5 percentage points from 17.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 in October? — probability rises to 56%
The tracked probability rose to 56%, up 10.0 percentage points from 46% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 32.65%
The tracked probability fell to 32.65%, down 5.5 percentage points from 38.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 23.35%
The tracked probability rose to 23.35%, up 20.3 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Next [link omitted] GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 52%
The tracked probability fell to 52%, down 10.0 percentage points from 62% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 2.55%
The tracked probability fell to 2.55%, down 47.3 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 23.85%
The tracked probability rose to 23.85%, up 20.3 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.55%
The tracked probability rose to 24.55%, up 12.2 percentage points from 12.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 2.65%
The tracked probability fell to 2.65%, down 22.0 percentage points from 24.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability falls to 37%
The tracked probability fell to 37%, down 3.5 percentage points from 40.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 19.25%
The tracked probability fell to 19.25%, down 11.6 percentage points from 30.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.25%
The tracked probability fell to 40.25%, down 6.5 percentage points from 46.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 78.35%
The tracked probability fell to 78.35%, down 14.7 percentage points from 93.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability rises to 27%
The tracked probability rose to 27%, up 11.0 percentage points from 16% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 13.5%
The tracked probability fell to 13.5%, down 7.2 percentage points from 20.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Caleb Williams have 3,500+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 26%
The tracked probability fell to 26%, down 19.5 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 3,500+ Passing Yards
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 30.15%
The tracked probability fell to 30.15%, down 6.7 percentage points from 36.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 53.8%
The tracked probability fell to 53.8%, down 4.5 percentage points from 58.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 8.9%
The tracked probability fell to 8.9%, down 7.1 percentage points from 16% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability rises to 63.6%
The tracked probability rose to 63.6%, up 3.9 percentage points from 59.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Plunge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 38.5%
The tracked probability fell to 38.5%, down 9.0 percentage points from 47.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners