Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 38.5%
The tracked probability fell to 38.5%, down 9.0 percentage points from 47.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 14.05%
The tracked probability fell to 14.05%, down 9.3 percentage points from 23.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 30.65%
The tracked probability fell to 30.65%, down 8.3 percentage points from 38.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability falls to 51.5%
The tracked probability fell to 51.5%, down 10.0 percentage points from 61.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Surge
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31? — probability rises to 61.5%
The tracked probability rose to 61.5%, up 14.0 percentage points from 47.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?
- Surge
Will Türkiye be relegated from Nations League A in 2026-27? — probability rises to 92.5%
The tracked probability rose to 92.5%, up 14.5 percentage points from 78% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Nations League A: Teams relegated (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $132 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 30%
The tracked probability fell to 30%, down 5.0 percentage points from 35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SK hynix (SKHY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability falls to 48%
The tracked probability fell to 48%, down 3.0 percentage points from 51% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 80%
The tracked probability rose to 80%, up 5.5 percentage points from 74.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 64%
The tracked probability fell to 64%, down 8.0 percentage points from 72% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability falls to 8.5%
The tracked probability fell to 8.5%, down 5.5 percentage points from 14% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.15%
The tracked probability fell to 38.15%, down 8.9 percentage points from 47.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability falls to 59.3%
The tracked probability fell to 59.3%, down 4.3 percentage points from 63.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 22.25%
The tracked probability fell to 22.25%, down 8.9 percentage points from 31.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.35%
The tracked probability rose to 46.35%, up 40.5 percentage points from 5.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability falls to 52.65%
The tracked probability fell to 52.65%, down 6.8 percentage points from 59.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
- Plunge
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October? — probability falls to 52%
The tracked probability fell to 52%, down 5.5 percentage points from 57.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.7%
The tracked probability rose to 24.7%, up 21.7 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 21.6 percentage points from 24.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.4%
The tracked probability rose to 49.4%, up 24.6 percentage points from 24.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 21.8 percentage points from 24.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 50.15%
The tracked probability rose to 50.15%, up 25.2 percentage points from 24.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will the biggest earthquake on October 19, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0? — probability falls to 61.95%
The tracked probability fell to 61.95%, down 37.5 percentage points from 99.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will the biggest earthquake be on October 19, 2026?
- Surge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $170 in October? — probability rises to 31%
The tracked probability rose to 31%, up 4.5 percentage points from 26.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 42.75%
The tracked probability rose to 42.75%, up 32.4 percentage points from 10.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 67.55%
The tracked probability rose to 67.55%, up 5.5 percentage points from 62.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Surge
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? — probability rises to 66.5%
The tracked probability rose to 66.5%, up 7.7 percentage points from 58.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1?
- Surge
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31? — probability rises to 72%
The tracked probability rose to 72%, up 10.0 percentage points from 62% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 31
- Surge
Will Nolan McLean win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 62.5%
The tracked probability rose to 62.5%, up 16.0 percentage points from 46.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 44.85%
The tracked probability rose to 44.85%, up 41.8 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 16%
The tracked probability rose to 16%, up 5.5 percentage points from 10.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 46.2 percentage points from 49.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. Psim Yogyakarta: O/U 7.5 — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 47.7 percentage points from 47.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. Psim Yogyakarta - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.6 percentage points from 49.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.8 percentage points from 49.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 49.6%
The tracked probability rose to 49.6%, up 46.8 percentage points from 2.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. Psim Yogyakarta: Psim Yogyakarta O/U 3.5 — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 50.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. Psim Yogyakarta - More Markets
- Plunge
Spread: Psim Yogyakarta (-3.5) — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 50.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. Psim Yogyakarta - More Markets
- Surge
Will Twice release a song in 2026? — probability rises to 63.8%
The tracked probability rose to 63.8%, up 18.5 percentage points from 45.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which KPop groups will release songs in 2026?
- Plunge
Will OXY play for Sentinels in 2027? — probability falls to 85%
The tracked probability fell to 85%, down 11.8 percentage points from 96.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: VALORANT Offseason: OXY Next Team
- Surge
Spread: Psim Yogyakarta (-3.5) — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 49.5 percentage points from 0.5% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. Psim Yogyakarta - More Markets
- Plunge
Will [link omitted], Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 10.5%
The tracked probability fell to 10.5%, down 9.0 percentage points from 19.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.1 percentage points from 25.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.8%
The tracked probability rose to 24.8%, up 21.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. Psim Yogyakarta: O/U 7.5 — probability rises to 47.75%
The tracked probability rose to 47.75%, up 47.3 percentage points from 0.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. Psim Yogyakarta - More Markets
- Surge
Will [link omitted], Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $268 Week of October 19 2026? — probability rises to 53.5%
The tracked probability rose to 53.5%, up 12.0 percentage points from 41.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 38.2%
The tracked probability fell to 38.2%, down 19.6 percentage points from 57.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 46.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 5.85%
The tracked probability fell to 5.85%, down 5.7 percentage points from 11.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader