Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 44.9%
The tracked probability rose to 44.9%, up 42.3 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? — probability rises to 64.1%
The tracked probability rose to 64.1%, up 6.3 percentage points from 57.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 11.3%
The tracked probability fell to 11.3%, down 7.6 percentage points from 18.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 69%
The tracked probability rose to 69%, up 9.5 percentage points from 59.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 43.85%
The tracked probability rose to 43.85%, up 41.4 percentage points from 2.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on October 19? — probability rises to 77%
The tracked probability rose to 77%, up 23.0 percentage points from 54% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on October 19?
- Surge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 47.3 percentage points from 2.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 22.85%
The tracked probability rose to 22.85%, up 19.4 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Esenler Erokspor vs. Mardin 1969 Spor: O/U 6.5 — probability falls to 6.95%
The tracked probability fell to 6.95%, down 5.4 percentage points from 12.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Esenler Erokspor vs. Mardin 1969 Spor - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 28.9%
The tracked probability fell to 28.9%, down 7.5 percentage points from 36.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 19? — probability falls to 92.1%
The tracked probability fell to 92.1%, down 4.4 percentage points from 96.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
- Surge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 45.5%
The tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 8.0 percentage points from 37.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Juwan Johnson have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 77.5%
The tracked probability rose to 77.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 74.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Juwan Johnson 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Esenler Erokspor vs. Mardin 1969 Spor: O/U 7.5 — probability falls to 8%
The tracked probability fell to 8%, down 8.3 percentage points from 16.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Esenler Erokspor vs. Mardin 1969 Spor - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 24.5%
The tracked probability fell to 24.5%, down 7.6 percentage points from 32.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will [link omitted], Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 78.5%
The tracked probability fell to 78.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 82% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability falls to 3.9%
The tracked probability fell to 3.9%, down 33.1 percentage points from 37% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 50.05%
The tracked probability rose to 50.05%, up 24.3 percentage points from 25.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Spread: Goiás EC (-5.5) — probability falls to 4.25%
The tracked probability fell to 4.25%, down 19.1 percentage points from 23.3% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Goiás EC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe - More Markets
- Plunge
SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on October 19? — probability falls to 85.5%
The tracked probability fell to 85.5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 90.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on October 19?
- Surge
CA San Telmo vs. CA Defensores de Belgrano: O/U 6.5 — probability rises to 49%
The tracked probability rose to 49%, up 48.3 percentage points from 0.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: CA San Telmo vs. CA Defensores de Belgrano - More Markets
- Surge
CA San Telmo vs. CA Defensores de Belgrano: O/U 8.5 — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 49.0 percentage points from 0.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: CA San Telmo vs. CA Defensores de Belgrano - More Markets
- Surge
Spread: CA San Telmo (-3.5) — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 49.4 percentage points from 0.55% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: CA San Telmo vs. CA Defensores de Belgrano - More Markets
- Surge
Spread: CA Defensores de Belgrano (-3.5) — probability rises to 15.4%
The tracked probability rose to 15.4%, up 14.8 percentage points from 0.55% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: CA San Telmo vs. CA Defensores de Belgrano - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Esenler Erokspor vs. Mardin 1969 Spor: O/U 8.5 — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 5.8 percentage points from 44.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Esenler Erokspor vs. Mardin 1969 Spor - More Markets
- Surge
CA San Telmo vs. CA Defensores de Belgrano: O/U 7.5 — probability rises to 49%
The tracked probability rose to 49%, up 48.5 percentage points from 0.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: CA San Telmo vs. CA Defensores de Belgrano - More Markets
- Surge
Spread: Mardin 1969 Spor (-3.5) — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 49.5 percentage points from 0.5% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Esenler Erokspor vs. Mardin 1969 Spor - More Markets
- Plunge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 55.5%
The tracked probability fell to 55.5%, down 9.5 percentage points from 65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Chet Holmgren lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 17.15%
The tracked probability fell to 17.15%, down 33.8 percentage points from 50.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.05%
The tracked probability rose to 25.05%, up 21.6 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 45%
The tracked probability rose to 45%, up 22.6 percentage points from 22.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Boulaye Dia score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability falls to 5.8%
The tracked probability fell to 5.8%, down 11.1 percentage points from 16.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.4 percentage points from 45.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Jakobi Meyers finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 26.25%
The tracked probability rose to 26.25%, up 23.0 percentage points from 3.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 16.9%
The tracked probability fell to 16.9%, down 11.5 percentage points from 28.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 18.7%
The tracked probability fell to 18.7%, down 6.3 percentage points from 25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 29.75%
The tracked probability rose to 29.75%, up 19.2 percentage points from 10.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 8%
The tracked probability fell to 8%, down 3.9 percentage points from 11.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34.55%
The tracked probability fell to 34.55%, down 6.7 percentage points from 41.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 19.35%
The tracked probability fell to 19.35%, down 7.8 percentage points from 27.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 18.9%
The tracked probability fell to 18.9%, down 7.3 percentage points from 26.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.6%
The tracked probability rose to 49.6%, up 46.6 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability falls to 48%
The tracked probability fell to 48%, down 10.0 percentage points from 58% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Plunge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 7.55%
The tracked probability fell to 7.55%, down 17.3 percentage points from 24.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above $360M? — probability falls to 74.5%
The tracked probability fell to 74.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 77.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above __?
- Surge
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 70%
The tracked probability rose to 70%, up 7.5 percentage points from 62.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 15.3%
The tracked probability fell to 15.3%, down 7.8 percentage points from 23.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 21.3 percentage points from 24.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader