Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 25.15%
The tracked probability fell to 25.15%, down 6.8 percentage points from 31.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 46.4 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 4.35%
The tracked probability fell to 4.35%, down 5.7 percentage points from 10.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $44 in October? — probability rises to 25.2%
The tracked probability rose to 25.2%, up 3.2 percentage points from 22% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 21.95%
The tracked probability fell to 21.95%, down 8.7 percentage points from 30.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October? — probability falls to 54.5%
The tracked probability fell to 54.5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 59.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.55%
The tracked probability rose to 49.55%, up 46.5 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 22.75%
The tracked probability fell to 22.75%, down 9.6 percentage points from 32.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 22.45%
The tracked probability fell to 22.45%, down 9.5 percentage points from 31.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 20.1%
The tracked probability fell to 20.1%, down 7.8 percentage points from 27.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Coventry City FC: Tottenham Hotspur FC O/U 5.5 — probability falls to 8.5%
The tracked probability fell to 8.5%, down 10.3 percentage points from 18.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Coventry City FC - More Markets
- Plunge
Will something leave Paper Rex in 2026? — probability falls to 29%
The tracked probability fell to 29%, down 18.5 percentage points from 47.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Players Will Leave Their Team in 2026?
- Surge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 46%
The tracked probability rose to 46%, up 6.0 percentage points from 40% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 in October? — probability rises to 58%
The tracked probability rose to 58%, up 4.0 percentage points from 54% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 10.45%
The tracked probability fell to 10.45%, down 8.5 percentage points from 18.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Getafe CF O/U 4.5 — probability falls to 6.95%
The tracked probability fell to 6.95%, down 8.5 percentage points from 15.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid - More Markets
- Plunge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability falls to 40%
The tracked probability fell to 40%, down 3.5 percentage points from 43.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 4.7 percentage points from 45.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Spread: Goiás EC (-5.5) — probability rises to 23.45%
The tracked probability rose to 23.45%, up 19.0 percentage points from 4.45% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Goiás EC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe - More Markets
- Plunge
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 19? — probability falls to 83.45%
The tracked probability fell to 83.45%, down 4.6 percentage points from 88.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Jakobi Meyers finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 25.45%
The tracked probability fell to 25.45%, down 24.3 percentage points from 49.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid O/U 4.5 — probability falls to 16%
The tracked probability fell to 16%, down 34.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid - More Markets
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on October 19? — probability falls to 77.5%
The tracked probability fell to 77.5%, down 15.5 percentage points from 93% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on October 19?
- Plunge
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on October 19? — probability falls to 51%
The tracked probability fell to 51%, down 46.7 percentage points from 97.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on October 19?
- Surge
Will [link omitted], Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of October 19 2026? — probability rises to 92%
The tracked probability rose to 92%, up 6.5 percentage points from 85.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on October 19? — probability falls to 59.5%
The tracked probability fell to 59.5%, down 29.5 percentage points from 89% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on October 19?
- Surge
Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 93.05%
The tracked probability rose to 93.05%, up 4.8 percentage points from 88.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on October 19? — probability falls to 95%
The tracked probability fell to 95%, down 3.5 percentage points from 98.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Noe Khlif qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability falls to 17.5%
The tracked probability fell to 17.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 24.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Men's)
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.9%
The tracked probability rose to 24.9%, up 21.3 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability falls to 60.85%
The tracked probability fell to 60.85%, down 6.6 percentage points from 67.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Plunge
Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? — probability falls to 27.05%
The tracked probability fell to 27.05%, down 32.3 percentage points from 59.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 12.75%
The tracked probability fell to 12.75%, down 7.5 percentage points from 20.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $178 in October? — probability rises to 54.45%
The tracked probability rose to 54.45%, up 4.8 percentage points from 49.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above $1.35B? — probability falls to 23.5%
The tracked probability fell to 23.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 26.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above __?
- Volume
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? — probability rises to 14.75%
Probability moved from 14.7% to 14.75%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $28,725.9555 to $93,983.5655. The cause is not established.
Market: Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Surge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability rises to 60.5%
The tracked probability rose to 60.5%, up 8.5 percentage points from 52% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 10.15%
The tracked probability fell to 10.15%, down 8.5 percentage points from 18.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 10.05%
The tracked probability fell to 10.05%, down 8.3 percentage points from 18.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 53%
The tracked probability fell to 53%, down 6.0 percentage points from 59% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Getafe CF O/U 3.5 — probability falls to 5.95%
The tracked probability fell to 5.95%, down 44.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.1%
The tracked probability fell to 39.1%, down 8.6 percentage points from 47.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Michal Sadílek record the most assists in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? — probability falls to 2.95%
The tracked probability fell to 2.95%, down 4.8 percentage points from 7.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Champions League: Most Assists 2026-27
- Plunge
Spread: CA San Telmo (-2.5) — probability falls to 1.65%
The tracked probability fell to 1.65%, down 3.7 percentage points from 5.35% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: CA San Telmo vs. CA Defensores de Belgrano - More Markets
- Surge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 43.1%
The tracked probability rose to 43.1%, up 40.9 percentage points from 2.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 7.55%
The tracked probability fell to 7.55%, down 17.3 percentage points from 24.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 44.85%
The tracked probability rose to 44.85%, up 8.5 percentage points from 36.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 31.95%
The tracked probability fell to 31.95%, down 8.5 percentage points from 40.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 80.45%
The tracked probability fell to 80.45%, down 3.3 percentage points from 83.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.85%
The tracked probability rose to 49.85%, up 46.4 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader