Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.35%
The tracked probability fell to 12.35%, down 37.5 percentage points from 49.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 37.5 percentage points from 12.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of October 19 2026? — probability rises to 62.5%
The tracked probability rose to 62.5%, up 5.0 percentage points from 57.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 22.65%
The tracked probability fell to 22.65%, down 16.4 percentage points from 39.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.35%
The tracked probability fell to 12.35%, down 12.5 percentage points from 24.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 25.1 percentage points from 24.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 11.9%
The tracked probability fell to 11.9%, down 11.2 percentage points from 23.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 73.65%
The tracked probability rose to 73.65%, up 5.4 percentage points from 68.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 66.5%
The tracked probability fell to 66.5%, down 8.5 percentage points from 75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 37.5%
The tracked probability fell to 37.5%, down 9.0 percentage points from 46.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026? — probability falls to 92.3%
The tracked probability fell to 92.3%, down 4.1 percentage points from 96.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Khamenei # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?
- Plunge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability falls to 47%
The tracked probability fell to 47%, down 6.5 percentage points from 53.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25%
The tracked probability rose to 25%, up 12.6 percentage points from 12.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 37.3 percentage points from 12.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 12.1%
The tracked probability fell to 12.1%, down 11.7 percentage points from 23.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 70.5%
The tracked probability fell to 70.5%, down 6.5 percentage points from 77% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability rises to 67.3%
The tracked probability rose to 67.3%, up 5.3 percentage points from 62% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 34.35%
The tracked probability fell to 34.35%, down 6.8 percentage points from 41.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability falls to 59.75%
The tracked probability fell to 59.75%, down 12.7 percentage points from 72.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Surge
Will KLA Corp (KLAC) Q1 total revenues be above $3.95B? — probability rises to 94.9%
The tracked probability rose to 94.9%, up 3.7 percentage points from 91.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will KLA Corp (KLAC) Q1 total revenues be above __?
- Plunge
Will Macklin Celebrini record 100+ points? — probability falls to 62%
The tracked probability fell to 62%, down 4.5 percentage points from 66.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? — probability rises to 11.1%
The tracked probability rose to 11.1%, up 3.4 percentage points from 7.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Surge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $204 in October? — probability rises to 55.5%
The tracked probability rose to 55.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 52.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability falls to 59.5%
The tracked probability fell to 59.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 66.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next President of Germany?
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $170 in October? — probability rises to 43.5%
The tracked probability rose to 43.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 39.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability rises to 55.05%
The tracked probability rose to 55.05%, up 4.6 percentage points from 50.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will Auston Matthews record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability falls to 50.5%
The tracked probability fell to 50.5%, down 7.5 percentage points from 58% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 80+ Points
- Surge
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy… — probability rises to 54.5%
The tracked probability rose to 54.5%, up 12.5 percentage points from 42% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 22.95%
The tracked probability rose to 22.95%, up 10.0 percentage points from 12.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Fnatic make a roster change by December? — probability rises to 93.4%
The tracked probability rose to 93.4%, up 5.8 percentage points from 87.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Plunge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.4%
The tracked probability fell to 12.4%, down 12.2 percentage points from 24.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 24.8 percentage points from 25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will [link omitted], Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $268 Week of October 19 2026? — probability rises to 58.5%
The tracked probability rose to 58.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 54.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on October 20? — probability falls to 94.5%
The tracked probability fell to 94.5%, down 4.0 percentage points from 98.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Madrid on October 20?
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.4%
The tracked probability fell to 12.4%, down 12.7 percentage points from 25.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 37.4 percentage points from 12.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 27.1 percentage points from 22.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability falls to 9%
The tracked probability fell to 9%, down 24.0 percentage points from 33% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 24.95%
The tracked probability fell to 24.95%, down 12.3 percentage points from 37.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21? — probability rises to 48.15%
The tracked probability rose to 48.15%, up 7.6 percentage points from 40.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Istanbul on October 21?
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $184 in October? — probability falls to 8.5%
The tracked probability fell to 8.5%, down 12.5 percentage points from 21% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.35%
The tracked probability fell to 12.35%, down 37.5 percentage points from 49.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.5%
The tracked probability fell to 12.5%, down 12.2 percentage points from 24.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 25%
The tracked probability fell to 25%, down 24.6 percentage points from 49.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 13.15%
The tracked probability fell to 13.15%, down 10.6 percentage points from 23.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 37.65%
The tracked probability rose to 37.65%, up 18.6 percentage points from 19% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.25%
The tracked probability rose to 33.25%, up 16.6 percentage points from 16.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Carnell Tate have 1,174.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 24%
The tracked probability fell to 24%, down 3.0 percentage points from 27% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Carnell Tate 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 58.5%
The tracked probability rose to 58.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 54% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy A… — probability rises to 42%
The tracked probability rose to 42%, up 5.5 percentage points from 36.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations