Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on October 16? — probability falls to 86.5%
The tracked probability fell to 86.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Chongqing on October 16?
- Plunge
Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6? — probability falls to 49.05%
The tracked probability fell to 49.05%, down 46.8 percentage points from 95.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will the biggest earthquake be on October 15, 2026?
- Surge
Will the NBA announce an expansion team in Las Vegas by October 30, 2026? — probability rises to 17%
The tracked probability rose to 17%, up 3.0 percentage points from 14% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA to announce expansion team in Las Vegas by...?
- Surge
Will Connor Bedard record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability rises to 39%
The tracked probability rose to 39%, up 6.5 percentage points from 32.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 80+ Points
- Plunge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 4%
The tracked probability fell to 4%, down 18.4 percentage points from 22.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $188 in October? — probability falls to 26%
The tracked probability fell to 26%, down 20.0 percentage points from 46% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 22.6 percentage points from 25.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 19%
The tracked probability rose to 19%, up 8.5 percentage points from 10.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 60.5%
The tracked probability fell to 60.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring RBs
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 38.1 percentage points from 41.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Surge
Will Connor Bedard record 30+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability rises to 76%
The tracked probability rose to 76%, up 5.0 percentage points from 71% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 30+ Goals
- Surge
M15 Heraklion: Julio Cesar Porras vs Valentin Gonzalez-Galino — probability rises to 6.55%
The tracked probability rose to 6.55%, up 3.0 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: M15 Heraklion: Julio Cesar Porras vs Valentin Gonzalez-Galino
- Surge
Will OXY play for Cloud9 in 2027? — probability rises to 64%
The tracked probability rose to 64%, up 15.5 percentage points from 48.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: VALORANT Offseason: OXY Next Team
- Surge
Will Sam LaPorta finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 75%
The tracked probability rose to 75%, up 10.0 percentage points from 65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 31.05%
The tracked probability fell to 31.05%, down 17.0 percentage points from 48.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 50%
The tracked probability fell to 50%, down 12.5 percentage points from 62.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 20.3%
The tracked probability rose to 20.3%, up 17.3 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 15.7 percentage points from 18.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.95%
The tracked probability rose to 24.95%, up 21.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability falls to 25.25%
The tracked probability fell to 25.25%, down 24.3 percentage points from 49.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.4%
The tracked probability fell to 39.4%, down 8.7 percentage points from 48.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 42%
The tracked probability fell to 42%, down 6.1 percentage points from 48.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.3%
The tracked probability fell to 36.3%, down 11.9 percentage points from 48.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $50? — probability rises to 91.15%
The tracked probability rose to 91.15%, up 40.9 percentage points from 50.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above___?
- Surge
Will Dominik Kotarski record the most clean sheets in the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League? — probability rises to 25.15%
The tracked probability rose to 25.15%, up 21.5 percentage points from 3.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Conference League: Most Clean Sheets (GK) 2026-27
- Plunge
Will Michael Mayer finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 25.85%
The tracked probability fell to 25.85%, down 24.6 percentage points from 50.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 46.3 percentage points from 49.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Eli Stowers finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 22.85%
The tracked probability fell to 22.85%, down 21.6 percentage points from 44.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will FlyQuest qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability rises to 87%
The tracked probability rose to 87%, up 11.0 percentage points from 76% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Plunge
Will Jalen Hurts have 2,999.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 21%
The tracked probability fell to 21%, down 10.5 percentage points from 31.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards
- Surge
Will Jalen Hurts have 16.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 26.5%
The tracked probability rose to 26.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 23.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $525 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 6.2%
The tracked probability fell to 6.2%, down 3.5 percentage points from 9.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6? — probability rises to 95.9%
The tracked probability rose to 95.9%, up 46.8 percentage points from 49.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will the biggest earthquake be on October 15, 2026?
- Surge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 65%
The tracked probability rose to 65%, up 4.5 percentage points from 60.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring RBs
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 42.5%
The tracked probability fell to 42.5%, down 5.4 percentage points from 47.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 37%
The tracked probability fell to 37%, down 11.0 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 32.85%
The tracked probability fell to 32.85%, down 15.3 percentage points from 48.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 32.65%
The tracked probability fell to 32.65%, down 15.6 percentage points from 48.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 45.1%
The tracked probability fell to 45.1%, down 3.3 percentage points from 48.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 16? — probability falls to 88%
The tracked probability fell to 88%, down 5.5 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in London on October 16?
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 16? — probability falls to 72.5%
The tracked probability fell to 72.5%, down 17.0 percentage points from 89.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Hong Kong on October 16?
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 16? — probability falls to 66.5%
The tracked probability fell to 66.5%, down 15.5 percentage points from 82% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Shenzhen on October 16?
- Plunge
Will the NBA announce an expansion team in Las Vegas by October 23, 2026? — probability falls to 14.5%
The tracked probability fell to 14.5%, down 12.5 percentage points from 27% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA to announce expansion team in Las Vegas by...?
- Plunge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 24.3 percentage points from 27.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above $50? — probability falls to 50.2%
The tracked probability fell to 50.2%, down 39.8 percentage points from 90% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of October 12 above___?
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 46.8 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 46.3 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Eli Stowers finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 44.45%
The tracked probability rose to 44.45%, up 41.3 percentage points from 3.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability falls to 42.5%
The tracked probability fell to 42.5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 47.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next President of Germany?
- Surge
Will Zay Flowers be the first WR to 1,000 receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 25.35%
The tracked probability rose to 25.35%, up 12.2 percentage points from 13.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: First WR to 1,000 Receiving Yards