Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.35%
The tracked probability rose to 25.35%, up 12.6 percentage points from 12.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 30.9 percentage points from 34.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Viktoria Plzen finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential? — probability rises to 22.1%
The tracked probability rose to 22.1%, up 19.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: League Phase Largest Goal Differential
- Plunge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.0 percentage points from 49.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.6 percentage points from 49.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 42.75%
The tracked probability fell to 42.75%, down 4.7 percentage points from 47.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 44.95%
The tracked probability fell to 44.95%, down 3.0 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Psim Yogyakarta vs. PSM Makassar: O/U 8.5 — probability rises to 38.3%
The tracked probability rose to 38.3%, up 38.0 percentage points from 0.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Psim Yogyakarta vs. PSM Makassar - More Markets
- Surge
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $348 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 36.0 percentage points from 14% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Apple (AAPL) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026? — probability falls to 15.5%
The tracked probability fell to 15.5%, down 7.5 percentage points from 23% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Surge
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 15%
The tracked probability rose to 15%, up 3.0 percentage points from 12% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on October 16? — probability falls to 92.4%
The tracked probability fell to 92.4%, down 6.5 percentage points from 98.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Chengdu on October 16?
- Plunge
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 73.5%
The tracked probability fell to 73.5%, down 8.0 percentage points from 81.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability rises to 25.5%
The tracked probability rose to 25.5%, up 12.5 percentage points from 13% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Surge
Will Corinthians be relegated from the 2026 Brazil Série A? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 7.5 percentage points from 42% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Brazil Série A: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 45.0 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 46.5 percentage points from 49.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Shanghai Port be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 49.55%
The tracked probability rose to 49.55%, up 47.0 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 42%
The tracked probability fell to 42%, down 10.5 percentage points from 52.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Plunge
Will Lillestrom finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 41.2 percentage points from 44.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: League Phase Largest Goal Differential
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 30.4 percentage points from 33.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 36.55%
The tracked probability rose to 36.55%, up 30.5 percentage points from 6.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $168 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 19.3%
The tracked probability rose to 19.3%, up 16.3 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.1%
The tracked probability rose to 25.1%, up 21.6 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 28.2%
The tracked probability rose to 28.2%, up 22.9 percentage points from 5.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.7 percentage points from 49.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability rises to 49%
The tracked probability rose to 49%, up 4.0 percentage points from 45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Santos be relegated from the 2026 Brazil Série A? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 47.0 percentage points from 50.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Brazil Série A: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Inde Navarrette be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability falls to 71.5%
The tracked probability fell to 71.5%, down 8.5 percentage points from 80% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 41.05%
The tracked probability rose to 41.05%, up 38.2 percentage points from 2.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above $750? — probability falls to 13.5%
The tracked probability fell to 13.5%, down 8.5 percentage points from 22% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above___?
- Plunge
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 12.5%
The tracked probability fell to 12.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 16% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 15.2 percentage points from 18.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 18.3%
The tracked probability rose to 18.3%, up 15.3 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Masyn Winn win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 67.5%
The tracked probability rose to 67.5%, up 8.5 percentage points from 59% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on October 19? — probability rises to 48.75%
The tracked probability rose to 48.75%, up 47.3 percentage points from 1.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Solana price on October 19?
- Surge
Will Zay Flowers be the first WR to 1,000 receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 25.4%
The tracked probability rose to 25.4%, up 12.3 percentage points from 13.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: First WR to 1,000 Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 43.3%
The tracked probability rose to 43.3%, up 31.3 percentage points from 12% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $355 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 27.5%
The tracked probability fell to 27.5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 32.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $547.50 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 19.5%
The tracked probability fell to 19.5%, down 6.0 percentage points from 25.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Jacob Young win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 0.55%
The tracked probability fell to 0.55%, down 3.3 percentage points from 3.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 42.8 percentage points from 46.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on October 16? — probability rises to 89.5%
The tracked probability rose to 89.5%, up 38.5 percentage points from 51% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Wuhan on October 16?
- Surge
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.10 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 43.45%
The tracked probability rose to 43.45%, up 3.1 percentage points from 40.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Michael Porter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 27.45%
The tracked probability rose to 27.45%, up 16.8 percentage points from 10.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 18.2%
The tracked probability rose to 18.2%, up 15.2 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Juwan Johnson have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 85.5%
The tracked probability rose to 85.5%, up 16.5 percentage points from 69% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Juwan Johnson 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
M25 Qian Daohu: Egor Pleshivtsev vs Cruz Hewitt — probability rises to 99.95%
The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 26.0 percentage points from 74% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: M25 Qian Daohu: Egor Pleshivtsev vs Cruz Hewitt
- Surge
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability rises to 46%
The tracked probability rose to 46%, up 6.5 percentage points from 39.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next President of Germany?