What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 12 2026?
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Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of October 12 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 0.5%, down 9.5 percentage points from 10% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 10% → 1%
-9.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 0.5%, down 9.5 percentage points from 10% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 10% to 0.5% (-9.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T19:47:11.281Z to 2026-10-16T20:00:58.117Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 10% → 0.5%
Probability moved from 10% to 0.5% (-9.5 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 47 seconds apart: 2026-10-16 19:47:11 UTC to 2026-10-16 20:00:58 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 5% to 10% (+5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T15:47:46.549Z to 2026-10-16T16:00:56.545Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 9% to 5% (-4 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T15:30:39.775Z to 2026-10-16T15:47:46.549Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 5.5% to 9% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T15:16:33.647Z to 2026-10-16T15:30:39.775Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 11.5% to 8% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T11:17:44.604Z to 2026-10-16T11:33:20.179Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 16.5% to 11% (-5.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T10:47:51.784Z to 2026-10-16T11:04:27.542Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 12.5% to 15.5% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T10:02:32.389Z to 2026-10-16T10:17:58.736Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 16% to 12.5% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T09:49:34.325Z to 2026-10-16T10:02:32.389Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 12 2026?
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 0.5%
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