Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 47.2 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.8 percentage points from 49.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Java United FC vs. Bali United: O/U 8.5 — probability falls to 0.75%
The tracked probability fell to 0.75%, down 17.5 percentage points from 18.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Java United FC vs. Bali United - More Markets
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on October 16? — probability rises to 93.5%
The tracked probability rose to 93.5%, up 6.0 percentage points from 87.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Chengdu on October 16?
- Plunge
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 1.55%
The tracked probability fell to 1.55%, down 3.8 percentage points from 5.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $135 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 23.5%
The tracked probability fell to 23.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 27% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SK hynix (SKHY) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 29.25%
The tracked probability rose to 29.25%, up 26.2 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) hit (HIGH) $155 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 41.5 percentage points from 8.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will MicroStrategy (MSTR) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 43.6 percentage points from 47.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Boulaye Dia score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability falls to 3.4%
The tracked probability fell to 3.4%, down 21.9 percentage points from 25.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Surge
Will LØS make a roster change by December? — probability rises to 80.45%
The tracked probability rose to 80.45%, up 6.0 percentage points from 74.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Surge
Will Travis Etienne Jr. be the first RB to 1,000 rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 22.6%
The tracked probability rose to 22.6%, up 11.2 percentage points from 11.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: First RB to 1,000 Rushing Yards
- Plunge
Will Sam LaPorta finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 67.5%
The tracked probability fell to 67.5%, down 8.5 percentage points from 76% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 60.5%
The tracked probability rose to 60.5%, up 9.0 percentage points from 51.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.8 percentage points from 49.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 44.8 percentage points from 47.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above $750? — probability falls to 18%
The tracked probability fell to 18%, down 4.5 percentage points from 22.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above___?
- Surge
Spread: Safa (-3.5) — probability rises to 46.05%
The tracked probability rose to 46.05%, up 45.6 percentage points from 0.5% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Shamakhi FK vs. Safa - More Markets
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on October 16? — probability rises to 99.4%
The tracked probability rose to 99.4%, up 3.6 percentage points from 95.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Ankara on October 16?
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 31.9%
The tracked probability rose to 31.9%, up 15.9 percentage points from 16% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 31.15%
The tracked probability rose to 31.15%, up 27.2 percentage points from 4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 45.2%
The tracked probability rose to 45.2%, up 42.1 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $183 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 6.2%
The tracked probability rose to 6.2%, up 3.1 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Spread: AC Goianiense (-5.5) — probability falls to 2.55%
The tracked probability fell to 2.55%, down 47.1 percentage points from 49.7% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: AA Ponte Preta vs. AC Goianiense - More Markets
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 30.75%
The tracked probability rose to 30.75%, up 27.7 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Lillestrom finish the UEL league phase with the best goal differential? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 41.2 percentage points from 44.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: League Phase Largest Goal Differential
- Surge
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $960 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 38%
The tracked probability rose to 38%, up 32.0 percentage points from 6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31? — probability rises to 47%
The tracked probability rose to 47%, up 8.5 percentage points from 38.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will gas be below $3.75 in any state on...?
- Plunge
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 4.95%
The tracked probability fell to 4.95%, down 30.4 percentage points from 35.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Michael Mayer finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 22.15%
The tracked probability rose to 22.15%, up 19.1 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 38.5%
The tracked probability rose to 38.5%, up 7.5 percentage points from 31% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability rises to 27%
The tracked probability rose to 27%, up 11.0 percentage points from 16% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Surge
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability rises to 46%
The tracked probability rose to 46%, up 5.5 percentage points from 40.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next President of Germany?
- Surge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish as a top-5 RB in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 68%
The tracked probability rose to 68%, up 3.5 percentage points from 64.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring RBs
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 21.05%
The tracked probability fell to 21.05%, down 13.5 percentage points from 34.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 22.35%
The tracked probability fell to 22.35%, down 7.2 percentage points from 29.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $60 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 7.25%
The tracked probability rose to 7.25%, up 3.1 percentage points from 4.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 72%
The tracked probability rose to 72%, up 17.0 percentage points from 55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Surge
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability rises to 32.7%
The tracked probability rose to 32.7%, up 6.9 percentage points from 25.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Plunge
Will the biggest earthquake on October 15, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6? — probability falls to 49.05%
The tracked probability fell to 49.05%, down 47.8 percentage points from 96.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will the biggest earthquake be on October 15, 2026?
- Surge
Will Adrian Kempe record 30+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 11.5 percentage points from 38% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 30+ Goals
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 26.2%
The tracked probability fell to 26.2%, down 7.0 percentage points from 33.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 25.45%
The tracked probability fell to 25.45%, down 7.1 percentage points from 32.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Kirill Marchenko record 30+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability rises to 26%
The tracked probability rose to 26%, up 7.5 percentage points from 18.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 30+ Goals
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 33.35%
The tracked probability fell to 33.35%, down 7.4 percentage points from 40.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 10.45%
The tracked probability rose to 10.45%, up 7.4 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 37.85%
The tracked probability fell to 37.85%, down 5.8 percentage points from 43.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 32.85%
The tracked probability fell to 32.85%, down 7.4 percentage points from 40.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34.75%
The tracked probability fell to 34.75%, down 7.3 percentage points from 42.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Jared Goff finish as a top-12 QB in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 52%
The tracked probability rose to 52%, up 3.5 percentage points from 48.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring QBs