Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.6%
The tracked probability fell to 3.6%, down 30.8 percentage points from 34.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Spread: AC Goianiense (-5.5) — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 47.3 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: AA Ponte Preta vs. AC Goianiense - More Markets
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 20.15%
The tracked probability rose to 20.15%, up 17.2 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Spread: Safa (-3.5) — probability falls to 0.5%
The tracked probability fell to 0.5%, down 45.6 percentage points from 46.05% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Shamakhi FK vs. Safa - More Markets
- Surge
Will Mark Scheifele record 30+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 20.5 percentage points from 29.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 30+ Goals
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $168 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 34.5%
The tracked probability rose to 34.5%, up 31.6 percentage points from 2.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $960 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 11.5%
The tracked probability fell to 11.5%, down 26.5 percentage points from 38% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will A.J. Brown have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 38.8%
The tracked probability rose to 38.8%, up 17.8 percentage points from 21.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Will Dillon Dingler win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 27.5%
The tracked probability rose to 27.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 23% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 30.5%
The tracked probability fell to 30.5%, down 8.0 percentage points from 38.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Exact Margin: Tie — probability rises to 37.05%
The tracked probability rose to 37.05%, up 33.5 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chargers vs. Chiefs
- Surge
Will Deandre Ayton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.35%
The tracked probability rose to 16.35%, up 7.3 percentage points from 9.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Kevin Acton win the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election? — probability rises to 83.5%
The tracked probability rose to 83.5%, up 5.0 percentage points from 78.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 7.4 percentage points from 10.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $186 in October? — probability rises to 51.5%
The tracked probability rose to 51.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 48.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 53%
The tracked probability fell to 53%, down 7.5 percentage points from 60.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Next DeepSeek Flash released by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 59.5%
The tracked probability fell to 59.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 62.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next DeepSeek Flash released by...?
- Surge
RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. Levante UD: Levante UD O/U 3.5 — probability rises to 34.85%
The tracked probability rose to 34.85%, up 27.7 percentage points from 7.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. Levante UD - More Markets
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 19.15%
The tracked probability rose to 19.15%, up 5.9 percentage points from 13.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 40.2%
The tracked probability rose to 40.2%, up 39.9 percentage points from 0.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Zay Flowers be the first WR to 1,000 receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 31.75%
The tracked probability rose to 31.75%, up 18.6 percentage points from 13.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: First WR to 1,000 Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.10 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 99.95%
The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 61.1 percentage points from 38.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability rises to 61.7%
The tracked probability rose to 61.7%, up 9.9 percentage points from 51.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Surge
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $348 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 60%
The tracked probability rose to 60%, up 32.5 percentage points from 27.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Apple (AAPL) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.05%
The tracked probability fell to 17.05%, down 5.3 percentage points from 22.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 15.15%
The tracked probability fell to 15.15%, down 10.3 percentage points from 25.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 16.2%
The tracked probability fell to 16.2%, down 10.0 percentage points from 26.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 18.55%
The tracked probability fell to 18.55%, down 5.3 percentage points from 23.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 42%
The tracked probability fell to 42%, down 30.0 percentage points from 72% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Plunge
Will Randal Kolo Muani score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability falls to 5.15%
The tracked probability fell to 5.15%, down 42.3 percentage points from 47.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Plunge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 21.1 percentage points from 24.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on September 28, 2026? — probability falls to 60%
The tracked probability fell to 60%, down 14.5 percentage points from 74.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 19.5%
The tracked probability fell to 19.5%, down 8.0 percentage points from 27.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 22.15%
The tracked probability fell to 22.15%, down 10.7 percentage points from 32.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $58 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 85%
The tracked probability rose to 85%, up 8.5 percentage points from 76.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 27.5 percentage points from 31% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 24.05%
The tracked probability fell to 24.05%, down 10.7 percentage points from 34.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 26.35%
The tracked probability fell to 26.35%, down 7.0 percentage points from 33.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 30.4 percentage points from 33.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 2.6%
The tracked probability fell to 2.6%, down 30.7 percentage points from 33.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will C.J. Stroud be the first QB to 2,000 passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 31.3%
The tracked probability rose to 31.3%, up 9.8 percentage points from 21.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: First QB to 2,000 Passing Yards
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 27.8%
The tracked probability fell to 27.8%, down 9.5 percentage points from 37.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 30.55%
The tracked probability fell to 30.55%, down 7.3 percentage points from 37.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 43.6 percentage points from 47.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Boulaye Dia score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability falls to 3.4%
The tracked probability fell to 3.4%, down 21.9 percentage points from 25.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Surge
Will LØS make a roster change by December? — probability rises to 80.45%
The tracked probability rose to 80.45%, up 6.0 percentage points from 74.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Surge
Will Travis Etienne Jr. be the first RB to 1,000 rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 22.6%
The tracked probability rose to 22.6%, up 11.2 percentage points from 11.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: First RB to 1,000 Rushing Yards
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.8 percentage points from 49.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 44.8 percentage points from 47.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above $750? — probability falls to 18%
The tracked probability fell to 18%, down 4.5 percentage points from 22.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above___?