Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Matthew Golden have 1,049.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 28%
The tracked probability fell to 28%, down 5.5 percentage points from 33.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Matthew Golden 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 29.8%
The tracked probability rose to 29.8%, up 26.3 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability falls to 57.65%
The tracked probability fell to 57.65%, down 3.0 percentage points from 60.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 43.85%
The tracked probability fell to 43.85%, down 4.2 percentage points from 48.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 44.85%
The tracked probability fell to 44.85%, down 3.2 percentage points from 48.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability falls to 24%
The tracked probability fell to 24%, down 3.0 percentage points from 27% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 45.2%
The tracked probability fell to 45.2%, down 3.1 percentage points from 48.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Chet Holmgren lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 7.6%
The tracked probability fell to 7.6%, down 9.7 percentage points from 17.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 13.9%
The tracked probability rose to 13.9%, up 9.0 percentage points from 4.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 48.8%
The tracked probability rose to 48.8%, up 45.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 28%
The tracked probability rose to 28%, up 25.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $31.6B? — probability rises to 73%
The tracked probability rose to 73%, up 3.5 percentage points from 69.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above __?
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 36.95%
The tracked probability rose to 36.95%, up 34.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability falls to 43.5%
The tracked probability fell to 43.5%, down 4.0 percentage points from 47.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 10.25%
The tracked probability rose to 10.25%, up 7.5 percentage points from 2.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will TOP ESPORTS make a roster change by December? — probability falls to 39.45%
The tracked probability fell to 39.45%, down 29.9 percentage points from 69.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Plunge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 30.9 percentage points from 34.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy… — probability rises to 38.5%
The tracked probability rose to 38.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 35.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 34.7%
The tracked probability rose to 34.7%, up 31.7 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.3%
The tracked probability fell to 3.3%, down 46.7 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 30.5 percentage points from 33.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 32.5%
The tracked probability rose to 32.5%, up 29.9 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Carvana (CVNA) beat quarterly earnings? — probability rises to 23.5%
The tracked probability rose to 23.5%, up 14.0 percentage points from 9.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Carvana (CVNA) beat quarterly earnings?
- Surge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 28.8%
The tracked probability rose to 28.8%, up 26.2 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability falls to 57.25%
The tracked probability fell to 57.25%, down 18.3 percentage points from 75.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
- Surge
Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m? — probability rises to 93%
The tracked probability rose to 93%, up 3.5 percentage points from 89.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on October 18? — probability rises to 58.2%
The tracked probability rose to 58.2%, up 3.5 percentage points from 54.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on October 18?
- Surge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability rises to 49.15%
The tracked probability rose to 49.15%, up 15.2 percentage points from 33.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Plunge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 2.55%
The tracked probability fell to 2.55%, down 25.3 percentage points from 27.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on October 18? — probability rises to 74.5%
The tracked probability rose to 74.5%, up 8.0 percentage points from 66.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Madrid on October 18?
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 25%
The tracked probability fell to 25%, down 9.7 percentage points from 34.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability rises to 60%
The tracked probability rose to 60%, up 6.5 percentage points from 53.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next President of Germany?
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 44.85%
The tracked probability fell to 44.85%, down 3.6 percentage points from 48.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 45.5%
The tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 42.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Merida AD win on 2026-10-18? — probability falls to 50.1%
The tracked probability fell to 50.1%, down 18.4 percentage points from 68.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Arenas Club Getxo vs. Merida AD
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 18? — probability rises to 84.7%
The tracked probability rose to 84.7%, up 9.8 percentage points from 74.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Istanbul on October 18?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on October 18? — probability rises to 88.5%
The tracked probability rose to 88.5%, up 5.5 percentage points from 83% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on October 18?
- Plunge
Will FlyQuest qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability falls to 54.5%
The tracked probability fell to 54.5%, down 33.5 percentage points from 88% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Plunge
FK Polissia vs. FK Dynamo Kyiv: 1st Half O/U 2.5 — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 65.0 percentage points from 65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: FK Polissia vs. FK Dynamo Kyiv - More Markets
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 37.1 percentage points from 40.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 27.8%
The tracked probability rose to 27.8%, up 25.3 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 34.75%
The tracked probability rose to 34.75%, up 31.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability falls to 53.5%
The tracked probability fell to 53.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 60.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next President of Germany?
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 44.45%
The tracked probability rose to 44.45%, up 3.3 percentage points from 41.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.15%
The tracked probability rose to 48.15%, up 9.3 percentage points from 38.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.35%
The tracked probability rose to 47.35%, up 4.8 percentage points from 42.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Noe Khlif qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability rises to 24.5%
The tracked probability rose to 24.5%, up 6.0 percentage points from 18.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Men's)
- Surge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.05%
The tracked probability rose to 48.05%, up 25.5 percentage points from 22.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.05%
The tracked probability rose to 48.05%, up 21.9 percentage points from 26.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader