This event is for the upcoming Primera Federación game, scheduled for Sunday, October 18, 2026 between Arenas Club Getxo and Merida AD.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will Merida AD win on 2026-10-18?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 49.9 percentage points from 50.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 50% → 100%
+49.9 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 49.9 percentage points from 50.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 50.1% to 99.95% (+49.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T11:31:36.134Z to 2026-10-18T12:00:48.099Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 50.1% → 99.95%
Probability moved from 50.1% to 99.95% (+49.85 percentage points). Observations were 29 minutes 12 seconds apart: 2026-10-18 11:31:36 UTC to 2026-10-18 12:00:48 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 68.5% to 50.1% (-18.4 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T11:00:32.425Z to 2026-10-18T11:31:36.134Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 92.5% to 68.5% (-24 percentage points), from 2026-10-18T10:47:18.464Z to 2026-10-18T11:00:32.425Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This event is for the upcoming Primera Federación game, scheduled for Sunday, October 18, 2026 between Arenas Club Getxo and Merida AD.
Living timeline · 3 significant updates
Will Merida AD win on 2026-10-18? — probability rises to 99.95%
Keep exploring
PolySays is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or operated by Polymarket. PolySays provides informational and educational content only and does not provide financial, betting, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and regulatory status varies by jurisdiction.
Source market
Figures refresh periodically, not tick by tick. PolySays explains markets; it doesn’t run one or give trading advice.
View on PolymarketPolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.