Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Exact Margin: Tie — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 45.5 percentage points from 4.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Texans vs. Jaguars
- Surge
Paris FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: Paris FC O/U 4.5 — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 46.7 percentage points from 2.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Paris FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 - More Markets
- Surge
Exact Margin: Tie — probability rises to 24%
The tracked probability rose to 24%, up 22.0 percentage points from 2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Steelers vs. Buccaneers
- Plunge
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 5.5 — probability falls to 2.4%
The tracked probability fell to 2.4%, down 21.6 percentage points from 23.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Juwan Johnson have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 34.5%
The tracked probability fell to 34.5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 39.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Juwan Johnson 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
1Q Spread: Buccaneers (-10.5) — probability rises to 24.8%
The tracked probability rose to 24.8%, up 21.1 percentage points from 3.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Steelers vs. Buccaneers
- Surge
Exact Margin: Tie — probability rises to 24%
The tracked probability rose to 24%, up 22.5 percentage points from 1.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Cardinals vs. Rams
- Surge
Exact Margin: Tie — probability rises to 44.85%
The tracked probability rose to 44.85%, up 43.4 percentage points from 1.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Titans vs. Colts
- Surge
Exact Margin: Tie — probability rises to 47.75%
The tracked probability rose to 47.75%, up 46.3 percentage points from 1.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ravens vs. Browns
- Surge
Will Jalen Hurts have 16.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 21.5%
The tracked probability rose to 21.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 18.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Touchdowns
- Surge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 46.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.1 percentage points from 45.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on October 18? — probability rises to 88.5%
The tracked probability rose to 88.5%, up 12.5 percentage points from 76% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Moscow on October 18?
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on October 18? — probability rises to 97.5%
The tracked probability rose to 97.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 93.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Wuhan on October 18?
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on October 18? — probability falls to 61.25%
The tracked probability fell to 61.25%, down 11.0 percentage points from 72.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on October 18?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 18? — probability rises to 92.55%
The tracked probability rose to 92.55%, up 21.7 percentage points from 70.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Warsaw on October 18?
- Surge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.75%
The tracked probability rose to 33.75%, up 30.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3.15%
The tracked probability fell to 3.15%, down 47.2 percentage points from 50.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on October 18? — probability rises to 92.5%
The tracked probability rose to 92.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 89% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Munich on October 18?
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 41%
The tracked probability fell to 41%, down 8.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 50.2%
The tracked probability rose to 50.2%, up 47.2 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 30.6 percentage points from 33.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will TOP ESPORTS make a roster change by December? — probability falls to 40.65%
The tracked probability fell to 40.65%, down 8.4 percentage points from 49% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 22.35%
The tracked probability rose to 22.35%, up 17.5 percentage points from 4.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 13.7 percentage points from 16.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 9%
The tracked probability rose to 9%, up 6.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 21.15%
The tracked probability rose to 21.15%, up 17.9 percentage points from 3.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability rises to 46%
The tracked probability rose to 46%, up 5.0 percentage points from 41% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 13.3 percentage points from 16.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability rises to 43%
The tracked probability rose to 43%, up 5.0 percentage points from 38% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 45.55%
The tracked probability rose to 45.55%, up 22.2 percentage points from 23.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.55%
The tracked probability rose to 48.55%, up 7.5 percentage points from 41.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.45%
The tracked probability fell to 41.45%, down 4.3 percentage points from 45.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 28.8 percentage points from 31.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 42.05%
The tracked probability fell to 42.05%, down 6.0 percentage points from 48.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 19? — probability rises to 15%
The tracked probability rose to 15%, up 3.0 percentage points from 12% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 15.55%
The tracked probability rose to 15.55%, up 8.0 percentage points from 7.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.75%
The tracked probability rose to 17.75%, up 14.2 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 43.55%
The tracked probability rose to 43.55%, up 9.2 percentage points from 34.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will "Whalefall" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? — probability rises to 90.8%
The tracked probability rose to 90.8%, up 3.2 percentage points from 87.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: "Whalefall" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
- Surge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 64.5%
The tracked probability rose to 64.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 57.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.4%
The tracked probability rose to 47.4%, up 5.4 percentage points from 41.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 83%
The tracked probability rose to 83%, up 5.5 percentage points from 77.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.4%
The tracked probability rose to 48.4%, up 7.0 percentage points from 41.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 35.05%
The tracked probability fell to 35.05%, down 4.7 percentage points from 39.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Crystal Palace FC O/U 3.5 — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 14.0 percentage points from 14% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC - More Markets
- Surge
Will Masyn Winn win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 79%
The tracked probability rose to 79%, up 3.0 percentage points from 76% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 10.05%
The tracked probability rose to 10.05%, up 6.4 percentage points from 3.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 38.3%
The tracked probability rose to 38.3%, up 19.4 percentage points from 18.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 50.15%
The tracked probability rose to 50.15%, up 24.5 percentage points from 25.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs