Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 2.75%
The tracked probability fell to 2.75%, down 22.4 percentage points from 25.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 5.1%
The tracked probability fell to 5.1%, down 9.2 percentage points from 14.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Austin be between 44-45°F on October 18? — probability rises to 97.5%
The tracked probability rose to 97.5%, up 44.5 percentage points from 53% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Austin on October 18?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 19? — probability rises to 93.5%
The tracked probability rose to 93.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 89.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Tokyo on October 19?
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on October 18? — probability rises to 97.5%
The tracked probability rose to 97.5%, up 5.0 percentage points from 92.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Chicago on October 18?
- Plunge
Will C.J. Stroud be the first QB to 2,000 passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 70.65%
The tracked probability fell to 70.65%, down 10.3 percentage points from 80.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: First QB to 2,000 Passing Yards
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.05%
The tracked probability fell to 36.05%, down 10.5 percentage points from 46.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.05%
The tracked probability fell to 36.05%, down 7.9 percentage points from 43.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 23.7 percentage points from 26.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 21.9 percentage points from 24.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 33.5 percentage points from 36.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 30.5 percentage points from 33.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.6%
The tracked probability rose to 25.6%, up 7.5 percentage points from 18.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability rises to 48.55%
The tracked probability rose to 48.55%, up 14.6 percentage points from 33.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 4.7%
The tracked probability fell to 4.7%, down 9.1 percentage points from 13.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.3%
The tracked probability rose to 33.3%, up 30.3 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.05%
The tracked probability rose to 24.05%, up 10.9 percentage points from 13.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 6.35%
The tracked probability fell to 6.35%, down 17.0 percentage points from 23.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 10.6 percentage points from 13.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 20.35%
The tracked probability fell to 20.35%, down 8.2 percentage points from 28.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Torreense reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal? — probability rises to 32.2%
The tracked probability rose to 32.2%, up 14.5 percentage points from 17.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Team to advance to 2027 quarters
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 6.45%
The tracked probability fell to 6.45%, down 9.2 percentage points from 15.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 12.3%
The tracked probability fell to 12.3%, down 9.3 percentage points from 21.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will OXY play for Cloud9 in 2027? — probability falls to 48.5%
The tracked probability fell to 48.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 51.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: VALORANT Offseason: OXY Next Team
- Surge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 48.5%
The tracked probability rose to 48.5%, up 6.0 percentage points from 42.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 5.45%
The tracked probability fell to 5.45%, down 9.3 percentage points from 14.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.9%
The tracked probability rose to 47.9%, up 37.2 percentage points from 10.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 6.45%
The tracked probability fell to 6.45%, down 9.0 percentage points from 15.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.35%
The tracked probability fell to 12.35%, down 7.8 percentage points from 20.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability rises to 20%
The tracked probability rose to 20%, up 15.0 percentage points from 5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability falls to 16.25%
The tracked probability fell to 16.25%, down 5.9 percentage points from 22.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Surge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 68.5%
The tracked probability rose to 68.5%, up 8.0 percentage points from 60.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 18.4%
The tracked probability fell to 18.4%, down 8.1 percentage points from 26.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 45.15%
The tracked probability fell to 45.15%, down 4.3 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 13.6 percentage points from 17.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 45.3%
The tracked probability fell to 45.3%, down 4.4 percentage points from 49.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 56.95%
The tracked probability fell to 56.95%, down 19.8 percentage points from 76.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 27.2%
The tracked probability rose to 27.2%, up 24.2 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 45.45%
The tracked probability rose to 45.45%, up 42.4 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.8%
The tracked probability rose to 24.8%, up 21.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 50.05%
The tracked probability rose to 50.05%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 4.95%
The tracked probability fell to 4.95%, down 21.0 percentage points from 25.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 42.5%
The tracked probability fell to 42.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 47% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? — probability rises to 12.05%
The tracked probability rose to 12.05%, up 6.3 percentage points from 5.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Singapore Grand Prix?
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 26.5%
The tracked probability fell to 26.5%, down 8.0 percentage points from 34.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability rises to 62.25%
The tracked probability rose to 62.25%, up 4.7 percentage points from 57.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 13.55%
The tracked probability rose to 13.55%, up 10.5 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability rises to 67.25%
The tracked probability rose to 67.25%, up 5.1 percentage points from 62.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Plunge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 21.6 percentage points from 24.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 28.55%
The tracked probability fell to 28.55%, down 8.0 percentage points from 36.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader