Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on October 19? — probability rises to 99.95%
The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 3.7 percentage points from 96.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on October 19?
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.6%
The tracked probability rose to 49.6%, up 46.9 percentage points from 2.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31? — probability rises to 79%
The tracked probability rose to 79%, up 3.5 percentage points from 75.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Putin meets with Iranian officials by...?
- Surge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 62.5%
The tracked probability rose to 62.5%, up 6.1 percentage points from 56.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 12.65%
The tracked probability rose to 12.65%, up 9.2 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Kirill Marchenko record 30+ goals in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability falls to 24%
The tracked probability fell to 24%, down 12.0 percentage points from 36% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 30+ Goals
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.6%
The tracked probability rose to 49.6%, up 46.6 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 46.4 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Michal Sadílek record the most assists in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? — probability rises to 19.6%
The tracked probability rose to 19.6%, up 16.7 percentage points from 2.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Champions League: Most Assists 2026-27
- Plunge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability falls to 3.25%
The tracked probability fell to 3.25%, down 46.0 percentage points from 49.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.85%
The tracked probability rose to 49.85%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026? — probability falls to 79%
The tracked probability fell to 79%, down 3.5 percentage points from 82.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 77.5%
The tracked probability fell to 77.5%, down 5.5 percentage points from 83% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 4.1%
The tracked probability fell to 4.1%, down 6.8 percentage points from 10.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 48%
The tracked probability rose to 48%, up 42.9 percentage points from 5.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 81.95%
The tracked probability rose to 81.95%, up 3.1 percentage points from 78.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.9%
The tracked probability fell to 38.9%, down 6.8 percentage points from 45.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 6.1%
The tracked probability fell to 6.1%, down 6.8 percentage points from 12.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability rises to 18.5%
The tracked probability rose to 18.5%, up 11.0 percentage points from 7.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 12.15%
The tracked probability fell to 12.15%, down 6.6 percentage points from 18.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5% to 9.5%? — probability rises to 11.15%
The tracked probability rose to 11.15%, up 3.9 percentage points from 7.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis)?
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 21.35%
The tracked probability fell to 21.35%, down 15.4 percentage points from 36.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 27.45%
The tracked probability fell to 27.45%, down 4.8 percentage points from 32.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy… — probability falls to 25.5%
The tracked probability fell to 25.5%, down 4.0 percentage points from 29.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
- Surge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.7%
The tracked probability rose to 49.7%, up 46.7 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.6%
The tracked probability rose to 49.6%, up 46.6 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 46.5 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 44.1 percentage points from 5.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 18.5%
The tracked probability rose to 18.5%, up 8.3 percentage points from 10.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 66.5%
The tracked probability rose to 66.5%, up 8.0 percentage points from 58.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 26.6%
The tracked probability fell to 26.6%, down 5.8 percentage points from 32.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability falls to 58.4%
The tracked probability fell to 58.4%, down 8.2 percentage points from 66.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 10.5%
The tracked probability fell to 10.5%, down 6.7 percentage points from 17.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 63.85%
The tracked probability rose to 63.85%, up 4.2 percentage points from 59.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 46.3 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 46.7 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.6%
The tracked probability rose to 49.6%, up 46.6 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 46.4 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 5.05%
The tracked probability fell to 5.05%, down 5.6 percentage points from 10.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026? — probability falls to 43.5%
The tracked probability fell to 43.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 22%
The tracked probability fell to 22%, down 6.8 percentage points from 28.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 8.45%
The tracked probability fell to 8.45%, down 5.7 percentage points from 14.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on October 20? — probability falls to 85.75%
The tracked probability fell to 85.75%, down 7.2 percentage points from 92.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on October 20?
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 15.4%
The tracked probability fell to 15.4%, down 6.9 percentage points from 22.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 28.5%
The tracked probability rose to 28.5%, up 16.4 percentage points from 12.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jordan Love have 3,799.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 76.5%
The tracked probability rose to 76.5%, up 11.0 percentage points from 65.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jordan Love 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.75%
The tracked probability rose to 49.75%, up 46.8 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.3%
The tracked probability rose to 49.3%, up 46.3 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader