Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability rises to 64.5%
The tracked probability rose to 64.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 61.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Surge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 69.5%
The tracked probability rose to 69.5%, up 16.0 percentage points from 53.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 10.4%
The tracked probability fell to 10.4%, down 7.2 percentage points from 17.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 21%
The tracked probability fell to 21%, down 7.9 percentage points from 28.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 11.65%
The tracked probability fell to 11.65%, down 7.7 percentage points from 19.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.2%
The tracked probability fell to 41.2%, down 6.6 percentage points from 47.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability falls to 16.5%
The tracked probability fell to 16.5%, down 10.0 percentage points from 26.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 7%
The tracked probability fell to 7%, down 6.3 percentage points from 13.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Nathan Fielder be nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 61.2%
The tracked probability rose to 61.2%, up 10.8 percentage points from 50.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 12.45%
The tracked probability rose to 12.45%, up 4.9 percentage points from 7.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 16.6%
The tracked probability fell to 16.6%, down 7.6 percentage points from 24.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.55%
The tracked probability fell to 40.55%, down 7.5 percentage points from 48.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Papertrade FDV above $100M one day after launch? — probability falls to 35.5%
The tracked probability fell to 35.5%, down 13.0 percentage points from 48.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Papertrade FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability falls to 19.5%
The tracked probability fell to 19.5%, down 24.0 percentage points from 43.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on October 19? — probability falls to 91.45%
The tracked probability fell to 91.45%, down 4.0 percentage points from 95.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on October 19?
- Plunge
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 71%
The tracked probability fell to 71%, down 9.5 percentage points from 80.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?
- Surge
1Q Spread: 49ers (-7.5) — probability rises to 99.95%
The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 21.5 percentage points from 78.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Commanders vs. 49ers
- Plunge
Mike Evans: Receiving Yards O/U 99.5 — probability falls to 74.5%
The tracked probability fell to 74.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 81.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Commanders vs. 49ers - Player Props
- Surge
Spread: Real Cartagena FC (-2.5) — probability rises to 99.95%
The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 15.5 percentage points from 84.5% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Real Cartagena FC vs. Boyaca Patriotas - More Markets
- Surge
Will Boulaye Dia score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability rises to 21.8%
The tracked probability rose to 21.8%, up 16.0 percentage points from 5.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Amsterdam be 9°C on October 19? — probability falls to 95%
The tracked probability fell to 95%, down 5.0 percentage points from 99.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on October 19?
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 50.35%
The tracked probability rose to 50.35%, up 42.3 percentage points from 8.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Spread: Club Nacional de Football (-2.5) — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 66.9 percentage points from 66.9% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Club Nacional de Football vs. Deportivo Maldonado - More Markets
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 8°C on October 19? — probability falls to 95%
The tracked probability fell to 95%, down 5.0 percentage points from 99.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Madrid on October 19?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on October 19? — probability falls to 51.5%
The tracked probability fell to 51.5%, down 44.0 percentage points from 95.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Miami on October 19?
- Plunge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 67.4%
The tracked probability fell to 67.4%, down 9.3 percentage points from 76.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Surge
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 80.5%
The tracked probability rose to 80.5%, up 5.5 percentage points from 75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 18.45%
The tracked probability fell to 18.45%, down 3.3 percentage points from 21.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.8 percentage points from 49.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 49.65%
The tracked probability rose to 49.65%, up 46.7 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 8.05%
The tracked probability rose to 8.05%, up 5.0 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Masyn Winn win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 83.5%
The tracked probability rose to 83.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 79% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $132 Week of October 19 2026? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 9.0 percentage points from 41% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SK hynix (SKHY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability rises to 58.4%
The tracked probability rose to 58.4%, up 6.3 percentage points from 52.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will Inde Navarrette be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability falls to 73%
The tracked probability fell to 73%, down 11.5 percentage points from 84.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations
- Surge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability rises to 60.5%
The tracked probability rose to 60.5%, up 18.5 percentage points from 42% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Plunge
Will "Please" be nominated for Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability falls to 33%
The tracked probability fell to 33%, down 12.5 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Animated Short Film Nominations
- Surge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 4.6 percentage points from 44.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.1%
The tracked probability fell to 41.1%, down 6.9 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 8.55%
The tracked probability fell to 8.55%, down 8.6 percentage points from 17.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? — probability falls to 10.5%
The tracked probability fell to 10.5%, down 3.1 percentage points from 13.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 8.85%
The tracked probability fell to 8.85%, down 9.0 percentage points from 17.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability falls to 52%
The tracked probability fell to 52%, down 9.0 percentage points from 61% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Plunge
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy A… — probability falls to 31%
The tracked probability fell to 31%, down 10.0 percentage points from 41% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 19.55%
The tracked probability fell to 19.55%, down 8.7 percentage points from 28.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 16.45%
The tracked probability fell to 16.45%, down 16.5 percentage points from 32.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 52%
The tracked probability fell to 52%, down 3.5 percentage points from 55.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability rises to 24.65%
The tracked probability rose to 24.65%, up 3.0 percentage points from 21.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 20.15%
The tracked probability fell to 20.15%, down 7.8 percentage points from 27.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader