Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 19.6 percentage points from 23.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 22.6 percentage points from 25.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.6%
The tracked probability rose to 45.6%, up 42.5 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 9.85%
The tracked probability fell to 9.85%, down 6.0 percentage points from 15.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 44.05%
The tracked probability fell to 44.05%, down 4.7 percentage points from 48.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 46.5%
The tracked probability rose to 46.5%, up 8.5 percentage points from 38% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Twice release a song in 2026? — probability falls to 62.05%
The tracked probability fell to 62.05%, down 10.2 percentage points from 72.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which KPop groups will release songs in 2026?
- Surge
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $31.6B? — probability rises to 86%
The tracked probability rose to 86%, up 11.5 percentage points from 74.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above __?
- Surge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.75%
The tracked probability rose to 46.75%, up 41.0 percentage points from 5.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.1%
The tracked probability rose to 45.1%, up 42.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Jordan Love be the first QB to 2,000 passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 57%
The tracked probability fell to 57%, down 4.0 percentage points from 61% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: First QB to 2,000 Passing Yards
- Plunge
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 19? — probability falls to 64%
The tracked probability fell to 64%, down 3.5 percentage points from 67.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 24.3 percentage points from 27.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.6%
The tracked probability rose to 45.6%, up 42.5 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 67.05%
The tracked probability rose to 67.05%, up 5.9 percentage points from 61.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.55%
The tracked probability fell to 40.55%, down 5.0 percentage points from 45.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 19? — probability falls to 74%
The tracked probability fell to 74%, down 13.0 percentage points from 87% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 19?
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 49.7%
The tracked probability rose to 49.7%, up 46.9 percentage points from 2.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will "Whalefall" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? — probability rises to 92.75%
The tracked probability rose to 92.75%, up 5.6 percentage points from 87.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: "Whalefall" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
- Plunge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jakobi Meyers finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 25.1%
The tracked probability rose to 25.1%, up 15.0 percentage points from 10.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Surge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability rises to 40.85%
The tracked probability rose to 40.85%, up 6.9 percentage points from 33.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Plunge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability falls to 32.5%
The tracked probability fell to 32.5%, down 15.0 percentage points from 47.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.6%
The tracked probability fell to 39.6%, down 5.6 percentage points from 45.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy A… — probability falls to 41%
The tracked probability fell to 41%, down 5.0 percentage points from 46% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 32.35%
The tracked probability fell to 32.35%, down 5.9 percentage points from 38.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.95%
The tracked probability fell to 38.95%, down 6.0 percentage points from 44.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.85%
The tracked probability fell to 38.85%, down 6.0 percentage points from 44.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will "The Blood of Dawnwalker" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability rises to 6.25%
The tracked probability rose to 6.25%, up 3.3 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Plunge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 10.5 percentage points from 13.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 31.8%
The tracked probability fell to 31.8%, down 6.0 percentage points from 37.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 9.2 percentage points from 40.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Surge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 61.5%
The tracked probability rose to 61.5%, up 6.0 percentage points from 55.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.05%
The tracked probability rose to 24.05%, up 21.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 26.25%
The tracked probability fell to 26.25%, down 6.0 percentage points from 32.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Israel military action against Lebanon on October 6? — probability rises to 31.5%
The tracked probability rose to 31.5%, up 5.0 percentage points from 26.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
- Plunge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 74.6%
The tracked probability fell to 74.6%, down 3.1 percentage points from 77.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026? — probability falls to 32.5%
The tracked probability fell to 32.5%, down 6.0 percentage points from 38.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.5%
The tracked probability fell to 17.5%, down 5.8 percentage points from 23.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Juwan Johnson have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 42%
The tracked probability rose to 42%, up 4.0 percentage points from 38% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Juwan Johnson 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability falls to 55.6%
The tracked probability fell to 55.6%, down 5.7 percentage points from 61.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Plunge
Will Sporting Cristal be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.4 percentage points from 45.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 23.1%
The tracked probability rose to 23.1%, up 20.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 5.1%
The tracked probability fell to 5.1%, down 22.0 percentage points from 27.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability rises to 47.5%
The tracked probability rose to 47.5%, up 14.0 percentage points from 33.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Plunge
Will Davante Adams have 1,000+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 19.5%
The tracked probability fell to 19.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 23% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 1,000+ Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.9%
The tracked probability rose to 24.9%, up 21.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)