This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day…
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 19?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 99.5%, up 26.0 percentage points from 73.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 74% → 100%
+26.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 99.5%, up 26.0 percentage points from 73.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 73.5% to 99.5% (+26 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T16:01:43.900Z to 2026-10-19T16:15:52.951Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 73.5% → 99.5%
Probability moved from 73.5% to 99.5% (+26 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 9 seconds apart: 2026-10-19 16:01:43 UTC to 2026-10-19 16:15:52 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 95.5% to 74% (-21.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T15:32:13.932Z to 2026-10-19T15:45:53.947Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 85.5% to 95.5% (+10 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T15:15:20.934Z to 2026-10-19T15:32:13.932Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 79% to 85.5% (+6.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T15:01:18.711Z to 2026-10-19T15:15:20.934Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 88.5% to 79% (-9.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T14:47:53.652Z to 2026-10-19T15:01:18.711Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 93.5% to 86% (-7.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T14:01:09.245Z to 2026-10-19T14:17:41.465Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 85.5% to 93.5% (+8 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T13:00:29.070Z to 2026-10-19T13:15:45.012Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 75.5% to 78.5% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T11:31:34.031Z to 2026-10-19T11:47:32.327Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here:.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.
If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 19? — probability rises to 99.5%
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