Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 25.85%
The tracked probability fell to 25.85%, down 5.9 percentage points from 31.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Inde Navarrette be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 78%
The tracked probability rose to 78%, up 9.5 percentage points from 68.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations
- Volume
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 0.5%
Probability moved from 0.95% to 0.5%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $463.12 to $3,063.86. The cause is not established.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 27.75%
The tracked probability fell to 27.75%, down 6.6 percentage points from 34.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.5 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $165 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 44%
The tracked probability fell to 44%, down 5.0 percentage points from 49% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SpaceX (SPCX) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $58 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 27%
The tracked probability fell to 27%, down 29.5 percentage points from 56.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 52%
The tracked probability rose to 52%, up 6.5 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability rises to 44.4%
The tracked probability rose to 44.4%, up 10.4 percentage points from 33.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Surge
Will "Whalefall" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? — probability rises to 58.5%
The tracked probability rose to 58.5%, up 13.0 percentage points from 45.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: "Whalefall" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
- Plunge
Will Randal Kolo Muani score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League? — probability falls to 5.15%
The tracked probability fell to 5.15%, down 42.9 percentage points from 48.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Europa League: Top Scorer 2026-27
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 19.6 percentage points from 22.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 41%
The tracked probability fell to 41%, down 8.1 percentage points from 49.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 29.5%
The tracked probability fell to 29.5%, down 3.9 percentage points from 33.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Spread: AC Goianiense (-5.5) — probability falls to 2.55%
The tracked probability fell to 2.55%, down 47.4 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: AA Ponte Preta vs. AC Goianiense - More Markets
- Surge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 40.75%
The tracked probability rose to 40.75%, up 40.2 percentage points from 0.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 15.7%
The tracked probability fell to 15.7%, down 10.2 percentage points from 25.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 25.1%
The tracked probability rose to 25.1%, up 21.6 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $210 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 44.55%
The tracked probability rose to 44.55%, up 40.0 percentage points from 4.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 12? — probability falls to 7.5%
The tracked probability fell to 7.5%, down 12.0 percentage points from 19.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?
- Surge
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Hakeem Jeffries by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 60%
The tracked probability rose to 60%, up 18.5 percentage points from 41.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?
- Plunge
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October? — probability falls to 75.5%
The tracked probability fell to 75.5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 80.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $178 in October? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 3.1 percentage points from 46.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Volume
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $60 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 0.45%
Probability moved from 0.6% to 0.45%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $309.6788 to $2,770.6788. The cause is not established.
Market: What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 23.45%
The tracked probability fell to 23.45%, down 7.3 percentage points from 30.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026? — probability rises to 97.6%
The tracked probability rose to 97.6%, up 11.5 percentage points from 86.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will Corbin Carroll win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 31.5%
The tracked probability fell to 31.5%, down 10.5 percentage points from 42% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability falls to 46.5%
The tracked probability fell to 46.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 5%
The tracked probability fell to 5%, down 4.0 percentage points from 9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Plunge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 25%
The tracked probability fell to 25%, down 24.6 percentage points from 49.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.1%
The tracked probability rose to 25.1%, up 10.4 percentage points from 14.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.4%
The tracked probability fell to 17.4%, down 7.8 percentage points from 25.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Nolan McLean win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 36%
The tracked probability fell to 36%, down 30.5 percentage points from 66.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $165 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 6%
The tracked probability fell to 6%, down 4.5 percentage points from 10.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 40.7%
The tracked probability rose to 40.7%, up 20.3 percentage points from 20.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above $750? — probability falls to 2%
The tracked probability fell to 2%, down 4.2 percentage points from 6.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Meta (META) finish week of October 12 above___?
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 27.1%
The tracked probability fell to 27.1%, down 7.3 percentage points from 34.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 35.25%
The tracked probability fell to 35.25%, down 7.5 percentage points from 42.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of October 12 2026? — probability falls to 8%
The tracked probability fell to 8%, down 7.5 percentage points from 15.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will Noah Fant finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 50.15%
The tracked probability rose to 50.15%, up 24.2 percentage points from 25.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Jalen Hurts have 199.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 54.5%
The tracked probability rose to 54.5%, up 13.5 percentage points from 41% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Rushing Yards
- Surge
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (HIGH) $171 Week of October 12 2026? — probability rises to 49.55%
The tracked probability rose to 49.55%, up 49.0 percentage points from 0.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SK hynix (SKHY) hit Week of October 12 2026?
- Surge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability rises to 45.1%
The tracked probability rose to 45.1%, up 42.0 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 23.7%
The tracked probability rose to 23.7%, up 20.2 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 21.45%
The tracked probability fell to 21.45%, down 16.1 percentage points from 37.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will there be at least 4900 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 71%
The tracked probability fell to 71%, down 4.5 percentage points from 75.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 30.3 percentage points from 33.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 54.5%
The tracked probability rose to 54.5%, up 7.5 percentage points from 47% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 9.6 percentage points from 12.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Kevin Acton win the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election? — probability falls to 79.5%
The tracked probability fell to 79.5%, down 5.5 percentage points from 85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner