Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.45%
The tracked probability rose to 48.45%, up 18.1 percentage points from 30.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.15%
The tracked probability fell to 3.15%, down 10.5 percentage points from 13.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 10.3%
The tracked probability rose to 10.3%, up 7.5 percentage points from 2.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 45.35%
The tracked probability fell to 45.35%, down 4.3 percentage points from 49.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.05%
The tracked probability rose to 49.05%, up 3.3 percentage points from 45.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 29.5%
The tracked probability fell to 29.5%, down 8.2 percentage points from 37.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 18.05%
The tracked probability rose to 18.05%, up 14.0 percentage points from 4.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on October 17? — probability falls to 73.55%
The tracked probability fell to 73.55%, down 21.7 percentage points from 95.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on October 17?
- Plunge
Will Dillon Dingler win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 76.65%
The tracked probability fell to 76.65%, down 9.8 percentage points from 86.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? — probability falls to 44.25%
The tracked probability fell to 44.25%, down 5.2 percentage points from 49.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Elon Musk # tweets October 15 - October 17, 2026?
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 44.85%
The tracked probability rose to 44.85%, up 41.4 percentage points from 3.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Masyn Winn win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 62.5%
The tracked probability fell to 62.5%, down 10.5 percentage points from 73% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.4%
The tracked probability rose to 33.4%, up 30.9 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.7%
The tracked probability rose to 25.7%, up 22.1 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 34.05%
The tracked probability rose to 34.05%, up 30.9 percentage points from 3.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 13.65%
The tracked probability rose to 13.65%, up 10.5 percentage points from 3.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Jakobi Meyers finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.3%
The tracked probability fell to 3.3%, down 23.1 percentage points from 26.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34.75%
The tracked probability fell to 34.75%, down 10.9 percentage points from 45.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will OXY play for Cloud9 in 2027? — probability rises to 52%
The tracked probability rose to 52%, up 7.5 percentage points from 44.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: VALORANT Offseason: OXY Next Team
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.5%
The tracked probability rose to 33.5%, up 30.9 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 25.05%
The tracked probability fell to 25.05%, down 5.5 percentage points from 30.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 33.45%
The tracked probability fell to 33.45%, down 7.3 percentage points from 40.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.25%
The tracked probability rose to 46.25%, up 6.3 percentage points from 40% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 30.35%
The tracked probability fell to 30.35%, down 6.1 percentage points from 36.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 13.6%
The tracked probability rose to 13.6%, up 10.5 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.65%
The tracked probability rose to 49.65%, up 21.2 percentage points from 28.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 42.35%
The tracked probability fell to 42.35%, down 4.9 percentage points from 47.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on October 19? — probability rises to 49.4%
The tracked probability rose to 49.4%, up 47.9 percentage points from 1.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Solana price on October 19?
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 16.0 percentage points from 19% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 21.8 percentage points from 24.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on October 17? — probability rises to 95.3%
The tracked probability rose to 95.3%, up 21.7 percentage points from 73.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on October 17?
- Plunge
Will Dillon Dingler win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 86.45%
The tracked probability fell to 86.45%, down 6.2 percentage points from 92.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 AL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.85%
The tracked probability rose to 16.85%, up 14.3 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 4.75%
The tracked probability fell to 4.75%, down 21.0 percentage points from 25.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $188 in October? — probability falls to 18.5%
The tracked probability fell to 18.5%, down 5.5 percentage points from 24% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Next [link omitted] GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 60%
The tracked probability fell to 60%, down 3.0 percentage points from 63% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.95%
The tracked probability rose to 24.95%, up 22.4 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026? — probability falls to 36%
The tracked probability fell to 36%, down 3.5 percentage points from 39.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Surge
Will Matthew Golden have 1,049.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 31.5%
The tracked probability rose to 31.5%, up 7.0 percentage points from 24.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Matthew Golden 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will "All of a Sudden" be nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 82.5%
The tracked probability rose to 82.5%, up 8.0 percentage points from 74.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best International Feature Film Nominations
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 26.15%
The tracked probability fell to 26.15%, down 6.5 percentage points from 32.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 10.9%
The tracked probability fell to 10.9%, down 6.0 percentage points from 16.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 12.35%
The tracked probability rose to 12.35%, up 9.8 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability rises to 26.5%
The tracked probability rose to 26.5%, up 10.5 percentage points from 16% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 46% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will C.J. Stroud be the first QB to 2,000 passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 32.85%
The tracked probability rose to 32.85%, up 9.5 percentage points from 23.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: First QB to 2,000 Passing Yards
- Surge
Will Karmine Corp Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final? — probability rises to 13.6%
The tracked probability rose to 13.6%, up 3.9 percentage points from 9.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Worlds 2026: Team to Make Grand Finals
- Plunge
Will TOP ESPORTS make a roster change by December? — probability falls to 39.7%
The tracked probability fell to 39.7%, down 11.3 percentage points from 51% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Plunge
Will Jalen Hurts have 16.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 48.5%
The tracked probability fell to 48.5%, down 8.5 percentage points from 57% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Touchdowns