Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will OXY play for Cloud9 in 2027? — probability rises to 55.5%
The tracked probability rose to 55.5%, up 6.0 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: VALORANT Offseason: OXY Next Team
- Plunge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability falls to 59.5%
The tracked probability fell to 59.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 63% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Surge
Will Jalen Hurts have 2,749.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 33%
The tracked probability rose to 33%, up 3.0 percentage points from 30% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards
- Plunge
Will TOP ESPORTS make a roster change by December? — probability falls to 51%
The tracked probability fell to 51%, down 15.3 percentage points from 66.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 31.25%
The tracked probability fell to 31.25%, down 3.4 percentage points from 34.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 33.75%
The tracked probability fell to 33.75%, down 7.8 percentage points from 41.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? — probability rises to 98.3%
The tracked probability rose to 98.3%, up 24.6 percentage points from 73.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on October 17? — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 51.3 percentage points from 51.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Ankara on October 17?
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on October 17? — probability rises to 95.5%
The tracked probability rose to 95.5%, up 5.5 percentage points from 90% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Paris on October 17?
- Plunge
Will Elias Pettersson record 80+ points in the 2026-27 regular season? — probability falls to 15%
The tracked probability fell to 15%, down 5.0 percentage points from 20% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 80+ Points
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 4, 2026? — probability rises to 54.25%
The tracked probability rose to 54.25%, up 4.3 percentage points from 49.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 18.05%
The tracked probability fell to 18.05%, down 28.1 percentage points from 46.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34.5%
The tracked probability fell to 34.5%, down 5.8 percentage points from 40.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 16.05%
The tracked probability rose to 16.05%, up 4.5 percentage points from 11.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Makai Lemon have 649.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 31%
The tracked probability rose to 31%, up 8.0 percentage points from 23% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Makai Lemon 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 10.35%
The tracked probability fell to 10.35%, down 5.5 percentage points from 15.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Masyn Winn win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 68%
The tracked probability rose to 68%, up 5.5 percentage points from 62.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 35.85%
The tracked probability fell to 35.85%, down 8.0 percentage points from 43.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Nolan McLean win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 76.5%
The tracked probability rose to 76.5%, up 13.5 percentage points from 63% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5% to 9.5%? — probability falls to 8.5%
The tracked probability fell to 8.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 11.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis)?
- Surge
Will TOP ESPORTS make a roster change by December? — probability rises to 66.35%
The tracked probability rose to 66.35%, up 15.7 percentage points from 50.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 31.8 percentage points from 35.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 17.45%
The tracked probability rose to 17.45%, up 7.1 percentage points from 10.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34.65%
The tracked probability fell to 34.65%, down 3.5 percentage points from 38.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? — probability rises to 73.7%
The tracked probability rose to 73.7%, up 5.6 percentage points from 68.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: Paris Saint-Germain FC O/U 5.5 — probability falls to 2.65%
The tracked probability fell to 2.65%, down 46.8 percentage points from 49.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona - More Markets
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C on October 17? — probability rises to 90%
The tracked probability rose to 90%, up 3.0 percentage points from 87% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Paris on October 17?
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on October 17? — probability falls to 51.3%
The tracked probability fell to 51.3%, down 8.1 percentage points from 59.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Ankara on October 17?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 17? — probability rises to 99.5%
The tracked probability rose to 99.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Miami on October 17?
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 8.4%
The tracked probability rose to 8.4%, up 4.9 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Jalen Hurts have 2,999.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 31%
The tracked probability fell to 31%, down 3.0 percentage points from 34% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards
- Plunge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 29.8 percentage points from 33.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 8.5 — probability rises to 44.5%
The tracked probability rose to 44.5%, up 44.3 percentage points from 0.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC - More Markets
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.15%
The tracked probability rose to 17.15%, up 13.5 percentage points from 3.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 30.8 percentage points from 34.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 29.8 percentage points from 33.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.9%
The tracked probability rose to 16.9%, up 13.3 percentage points from 3.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 7.5 — probability rises to 48.45%
The tracked probability rose to 48.45%, up 48.3 percentage points from 0.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC - More Markets
- Surge
Will Perpl launch a token by December 31, 2027? — probability rises to 47.5%
The tracked probability rose to 47.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 44% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Perpl launch a token by ___?
- Plunge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 29.7 percentage points from 33.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will "The Blood of Dawnwalker" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability rises to 11.15%
The tracked probability rose to 11.15%, up 10.7 percentage points from 0.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 42.5%
The tracked probability fell to 42.5%, down 3.3 percentage points from 45.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 24.3 percentage points from 27.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? — probability falls to 15.55%
The tracked probability fell to 15.55%, down 12.2 percentage points from 27.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Felix Protocol launch a token by ___ ?
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.3%
The tracked probability fell to 40.3%, down 7.7 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability rises to 48.95%
The tracked probability rose to 48.95%, up 3.2 percentage points from 45.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Surge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48%
The tracked probability rose to 48%, up 23.6 percentage points from 24.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will there be at least 4700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 96.45%
The tracked probability fell to 96.45%, down 3.0 percentage points from 99.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?
- Plunge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 11.55%
The tracked probability fell to 11.55%, down 5.0 percentage points from 16.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Makai Lemon have 649.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 23%
The tracked probability fell to 23%, down 5.5 percentage points from 28.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Makai Lemon 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards