Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 43.7%
The tracked probability fell to 43.7%, down 5.5 percentage points from 49.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 24.4 percentage points from 27.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 16.3 percentage points from 19.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.15%
The tracked probability fell to 3.15%, down 14.3 percentage points from 17.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on October 19? — probability falls to 1.5%
The tracked probability fell to 1.5%, down 47.9 percentage points from 49.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Solana price on October 19?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 18? — probability rises to 89%
The tracked probability rose to 89%, up 17.5 percentage points from 71.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Wuhan on October 18?
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on October 18? — probability rises to 97%
The tracked probability rose to 97%, up 22.0 percentage points from 75.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 18?
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? — probability falls to 4.3%
The tracked probability fell to 4.3%, down 9.7 percentage points from 13.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability falls to 71.1%
The tracked probability fell to 71.1%, down 12.8 percentage points from 83.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 12.3%
The tracked probability fell to 12.3%, down 3.1 percentage points from 15.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability falls to 39.75%
The tracked probability fell to 39.75%, down 5.2 percentage points from 45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 18.05%
The tracked probability fell to 18.05%, down 3.1 percentage points from 21.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 50.15%
The tracked probability rose to 50.15%, up 47.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026? — probability falls to 74.5%
The tracked probability fell to 74.5%, down 10.0 percentage points from 84.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Plunge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 35.5%
The tracked probability fell to 35.5%, down 6.5 percentage points from 42% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 41.15%
The tracked probability fell to 41.15%, down 8.4 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Masyn Winn win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 59.5%
The tracked probability fell to 59.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 62.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Jalen Hurts have 2,999.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 20%
The tracked probability fell to 20%, down 3.5 percentage points from 23.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 44.1%
The tracked probability fell to 44.1%, down 3.5 percentage points from 47.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Jalen Hurts have 16.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 24.5%
The tracked probability fell to 24.5%, down 8.5 percentage points from 33% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 47.5%
The tracked probability fell to 47.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 54.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $44 in October? — probability falls to 38.3%
The tracked probability fell to 38.3%, down 5.0 percentage points from 43.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.95%
The tracked probability rose to 25.95%, up 22.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 29.55%
The tracked probability fell to 29.55%, down 3.1 percentage points from 32.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 45.55%
The tracked probability rose to 45.55%, up 42.4 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 45.15%
The tracked probability rose to 45.15%, up 41.8 percentage points from 3.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 10.5 percentage points from 13.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 13.5%
The tracked probability fell to 13.5%, down 3.3 percentage points from 16.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 13.4 percentage points from 16.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 31.95%
The tracked probability fell to 31.95%, down 3.2 percentage points from 35.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? — probability falls to 34%
The tracked probability fell to 34%, down 9.8 percentage points from 43.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Who will perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 3.8%
The tracked probability fell to 3.8%, down 3.8 percentage points from 7.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.45%
The tracked probability rose to 49.45%, up 43.5 percentage points from 6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.1 percentage points from 45.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 27.4%
The tracked probability rose to 27.4%, up 23.4 percentage points from 4.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 19.3%
The tracked probability rose to 19.3%, up 16.3 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.5%
The tracked probability rose to 17.5%, up 14.3 percentage points from 3.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m? — probability rises to 83.5%
The tracked probability rose to 83.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 79.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: "Sense and Sensibility" Opening Weekend Box Office
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 18? — probability falls to 71.5%
The tracked probability fell to 71.5%, down 20.0 percentage points from 91.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Wuhan on October 18?
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 26.8%
The tracked probability rose to 26.8%, up 23.3 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on October 18? — probability falls to 75.05%
The tracked probability fell to 75.05%, down 21.0 percentage points from 96% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 18?
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 26.35%
The tracked probability rose to 26.35%, up 23.3 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on October 17? — probability rises to 96.95%
The tracked probability rose to 96.95%, up 4.4 percentage points from 92.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Dallas on October 17?
- Surge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.2%
The tracked probability rose to 33.2%, up 30.2 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 18.4 percentage points from 22% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 13.55%
The tracked probability rose to 13.55%, up 9.5 percentage points from 4.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 24.25%
The tracked probability rose to 24.25%, up 19.5 percentage points from 4.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Minnesota United FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 8.5 — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 49.4 percentage points from 49.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Minnesota United FC vs. St. Louis City SC - More Markets
- Surge
Will Perpl launch a token by December 31, 2027? — probability rises to 52.5%
The tracked probability rose to 52.5%, up 9.0 percentage points from 43.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Perpl launch a token by ___?
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.1%
The tracked probability rose to 45.1%, up 42.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)