Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.55%
The tracked probability fell to 3.55%, down 8.5 percentage points from 12.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Jakobi Meyers finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.25%
The tracked probability fell to 3.25%, down 46.8 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 4.85%
The tracked probability fell to 4.85%, down 9.0 percentage points from 13.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.2%
The tracked probability rose to 17.2%, up 13.2 percentage points from 4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 18.15%
The tracked probability rose to 18.15%, up 8.9 percentage points from 9.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 18.2%
The tracked probability rose to 18.2%, up 8.9 percentage points from 9.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 7.2 percentage points from 10.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will "Please" be nominated for Best Animated Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards? — probability rises to 39.5%
The tracked probability rose to 39.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 36.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Animated Short Film Nominations
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 30.4 percentage points from 33.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 10.1 percentage points from 13.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
New England Revolution vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 8.5 — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 49.3 percentage points from 0.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: New England Revolution vs. Chicago Fire FC - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 42.0 percentage points from 45.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 47.3 percentage points from 2.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Surge
Will CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above $360M? — probability rises to 84.5%
The tracked probability rose to 84.5%, up 5.0 percentage points from 79.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will CrowdStrike Q3 net new ARR be above __?
- Plunge
Will Masyn Winn win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 60.5%
The tracked probability fell to 60.5%, down 10.0 percentage points from 70.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Tractor Supply (TSCO) beat quarterly earnings? — probability rises to 41.25%
The tracked probability rose to 41.25%, up 10.2 percentage points from 31.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Tractor Supply (TSCO) beat quarterly earnings?
- Surge
Spread: Club Santos Laguna (-2.5) — probability rises to 99.95%
The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 11.0 percentage points from 89% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Club Santos Laguna vs. Querétaro FC - More Markets
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 9.25%
The tracked probability rose to 9.25%, up 6.3 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.45%
The tracked probability fell to 3.45%, down 10.0 percentage points from 13.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Paris FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: Paris FC O/U 4.5 — probability rises to 28.1%
The tracked probability rose to 28.1%, up 25.9 percentage points from 2.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Paris FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 - More Markets
- Surge
Will Michael Mayer finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 23.25%
The tracked probability rose to 23.25%, up 20.0 percentage points from 3.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 26.95%
The tracked probability fell to 26.95%, down 4.2 percentage points from 31.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 30.05%
The tracked probability rose to 30.05%, up 26.8 percentage points from 3.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 12.9%
The tracked probability fell to 12.9%, down 8.4 percentage points from 21.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 22.55%
The tracked probability rose to 22.55%, up 19.3 percentage points from 3.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 13.2 percentage points from 16.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
CA Osasuna vs. Real Racing Club: Real Racing Club O/U 3.5 — probability rises to 24.6%
The tracked probability rose to 24.6%, up 20.2 percentage points from 4.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: CA Osasuna vs. Real Racing Club - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 20.0 percentage points from 23.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability falls to 47.85%
The tracked probability fell to 47.85%, down 3.5 percentage points from 51.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Plunge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 20.3 percentage points from 23.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.35%
The tracked probability fell to 39.35%, down 7.5 percentage points from 46.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 44.05%
The tracked probability rose to 44.05%, up 18.3 percentage points from 25.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.5%
The tracked probability rose to 48.5%, up 42.3 percentage points from 6.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Aida Hadžialić be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Stockholm? — probability falls to 71.2%
The tracked probability fell to 71.2%, down 12.9 percentage points from 84.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Regional Board Chair of Stockholm?
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 37.05%
The tracked probability fell to 37.05%, down 12.5 percentage points from 49.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 43.5%
The tracked probability fell to 43.5%, down 5.0 percentage points from 48.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 49.65%
The tracked probability rose to 49.65%, up 5.2 percentage points from 44.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 78.15%
The tracked probability fell to 78.15%, down 14.9 percentage points from 93.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.75%
The tracked probability fell to 41.75%, down 5.4 percentage points from 47.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will "Whalefall" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? — probability rises to 92.55%
The tracked probability rose to 92.55%, up 8.8 percentage points from 83.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: "Whalefall" Rotten Tomatoes Score?
- Plunge
Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany? — probability falls to 62.5%
The tracked probability fell to 62.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 66% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next President of Germany?
- Plunge
Will Perpl launch a token by December 31, 2027? — probability falls to 42.5%
The tracked probability fell to 42.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 47% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Perpl launch a token by ___?
- Surge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 50.05%
The tracked probability rose to 50.05%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 10.25%
The tracked probability rose to 10.25%, up 7.2 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $31.6B? — probability rises to 55%
The tracked probability rose to 55%, up 5.5 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above __?
- Surge
Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above $1.35B? — probability rises to 28%
The tracked probability rose to 28%, up 5.5 percentage points from 22.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above __?
- Plunge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 32%
The tracked probability fell to 32%, down 6.0 percentage points from 38% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability falls to 14.5%
The tracked probability fell to 14.5%, down 11.0 percentage points from 25.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 73%
The tracked probability fell to 73%, down 5.0 percentage points from 78% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability rises to 73%
The tracked probability rose to 73%, up 3.5 percentage points from 69.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?