Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31? — probability falls to 62.5%
The tracked probability fell to 62.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 66% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 31
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 27.15%
The tracked probability fell to 27.15%, down 6.5 percentage points from 33.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 25.0 percentage points from 28% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 24.6 percentage points from 27.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.6%
The tracked probability rose to 49.6%, up 22.4 percentage points from 27.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 24.2 percentage points from 27.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 21.7 percentage points from 24.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $180 in October? — probability rises to 60%
The tracked probability rose to 60%, up 13.0 percentage points from 47% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $170 in October? — probability rises to 29.5%
The tracked probability rose to 29.5%, up 6.5 percentage points from 23% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 20.2%
The tracked probability fell to 20.2%, down 7.5 percentage points from 27.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.8%
The tracked probability rose to 49.8%, up 24.7 percentage points from 25.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.4%
The tracked probability rose to 46.4%, up 41.5 percentage points from 4.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 22.3%
The tracked probability fell to 22.3%, down 11.9 percentage points from 34.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 24.2%
The tracked probability fell to 24.2%, down 7.5 percentage points from 31.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on October 20? — probability rises to 99.45%
The tracked probability rose to 99.45%, up 49.2 percentage points from 50.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Wellington on October 20?
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 19.1%
The tracked probability rose to 19.1%, up 6.4 percentage points from 12.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 21.4 percentage points from 24.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability rises to 51%
The tracked probability rose to 51%, up 3.0 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Surge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability rises to 48.3%
The tracked probability rose to 48.3%, up 7.6 percentage points from 40.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Surge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 83%
The tracked probability rose to 83%, up 8.8 percentage points from 74.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 25.45%
The tracked probability fell to 25.45%, down 7.5 percentage points from 32.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.6%
The tracked probability rose to 49.6%, up 37.3 percentage points from 12.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.35%
The tracked probability rose to 47.35%, up 32.1 percentage points from 15.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Tucker Kraft finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 73.5%
The tracked probability fell to 73.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 76.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 43.5%
The tracked probability rose to 43.5%, up 9.4 percentage points from 34.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 88.2%
The tracked probability rose to 88.2%, up 9.8 percentage points from 78.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability rises to 12.5%
The tracked probability rose to 12.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Fnatic make a roster change by December? — probability rises to 93%
The tracked probability rose to 93%, up 5.8 percentage points from 87.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Plunge
Will Makai Lemon have 649.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 20.5%
The tracked probability fell to 20.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 27.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Makai Lemon 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 27.55%
The tracked probability fell to 27.55%, down 7.3 percentage points from 34.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability falls to 15%
The tracked probability fell to 15%, down 4.0 percentage points from 19% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 23.8%
The tracked probability fell to 23.8%, down 7.6 percentage points from 31.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1? — probability rises to 67.5%
The tracked probability rose to 67.5%, up 3.2 percentage points from 64.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer on week 1?
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 33.95%
The tracked probability fell to 33.95%, down 7.5 percentage points from 41.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026? — probability rises to 90%
The tracked probability rose to 90%, up 7.5 percentage points from 82.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Khamenei # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $188 in October? — probability rises to 9.5%
The tracked probability rose to 9.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 6.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.05%
The tracked probability rose to 25.05%, up 12.4 percentage points from 12.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 2.6%
The tracked probability fell to 2.6%, down 47.3 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 75.65%
The tracked probability rose to 75.65%, up 8.7 percentage points from 66.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 2.8%
The tracked probability fell to 2.8%, down 47.1 percentage points from 49.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Surge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.6%
The tracked probability rose to 49.6%, up 46.6 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 24.9 percentage points from 27.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.0 percentage points from 25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 46%
The tracked probability rose to 46%, up 8.5 percentage points from 37.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Wadi Degla SC vs. National Bank of Egypt Club: National Bank of Egypt Club O/U 3.5 — probability rises to 49.1%
The tracked probability rose to 49.1%, up 46.9 percentage points from 2.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Wadi Degla SC vs. National Bank of Egypt Club - More Markets
- Surge
Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. Psim Yogyakarta: Psim Yogyakarta O/U 3.5 — probability rises to 49%
The tracked probability rose to 49%, up 47.5 percentage points from 1.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. Psim Yogyakarta - More Markets
- Plunge
Will the biggest earthquake on October 20, 2026 be 6.1 or more? — probability falls to 75.1%
The tracked probability fell to 75.1%, down 12.7 percentage points from 87.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will the biggest earthquake be on October 20, 2026?
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.85%
The tracked probability rose to 49.85%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 20? — probability rises to 94%
The tracked probability rose to 94%, up 43.5 percentage points from 50.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 20?