Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 31.8%
The tracked probability fell to 31.8%, down 10.8 percentage points from 42.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 15.05%
The tracked probability rose to 15.05%, up 12.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.2%
The tracked probability fell to 3.2%, down 7.5 percentage points from 10.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on October 19? — probability falls to 11%
The tracked probability fell to 11%, down 5.0 percentage points from 16% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
- Surge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability rises to 49.25%
The tracked probability rose to 49.25%, up 6.0 percentage points from 43.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Surge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 18.05%
The tracked probability rose to 18.05%, up 5.8 percentage points from 12.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 18.65%
The tracked probability fell to 18.65%, down 5.8 percentage points from 24.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.4%
The tracked probability rose to 33.4%, up 30.4 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 4.1%
The tracked probability fell to 4.1%, down 5.5 percentage points from 9.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 23.1%
The tracked probability rose to 23.1%, up 20.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Paris FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: Paris FC O/U 4.5 — probability falls to 19.55%
The tracked probability fell to 19.55%, down 29.9 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Paris FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Tractor Supply (TSCO) beat quarterly earnings? — probability falls to 23.05%
The tracked probability fell to 23.05%, down 4.0 percentage points from 27% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Tractor Supply (TSCO) beat quarterly earnings?
- Surge
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026? — probability rises to 82.5%
The tracked probability rose to 82.5%, up 33.0 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Khamenei # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?
- Plunge
Exact Margin: Tie — probability falls to 1.45%
The tracked probability fell to 1.45%, down 46.3 percentage points from 47.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ravens vs. Browns
- Surge
FC Lorient vs. AS Monaco FC: AS Monaco FC O/U 4.5 — probability rises to 9.5%
The tracked probability rose to 9.5%, up 7.9 percentage points from 1.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: FC Lorient vs. AS Monaco FC - More Markets
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on October 18? — probability falls to 75.5%
The tracked probability fell to 75.5%, down 13.0 percentage points from 88.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Moscow on October 18?
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026? — probability rises to 15.9%
The tracked probability rose to 15.9%, up 7.2 percentage points from 8.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on October 18? — probability rises to 84.8%
The tracked probability rose to 84.8%, up 23.5 percentage points from 61.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on October 18?
- Plunge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability falls to 43.2%
The tracked probability fell to 43.2%, down 5.3 percentage points from 48.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Surge
Will Slovan Bratislava finish top 8 in UCL league phase? — probability rises to 49.3%
The tracked probability rose to 49.3%, up 46.2 percentage points from 3.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Champions League: Team to Finish Top 8 in League Phase
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.2 percentage points from 50.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 4.85%
The tracked probability fell to 4.85%, down 17.5 percentage points from 22.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 33.5%
The tracked probability rose to 33.5%, up 30.8 percentage points from 2.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Volume
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? — probability holds at 3.25%
Probability remained at 3.25%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $77.2914 to $1,039.2914. The cause is not established.
Market: What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 20.25%
The tracked probability rose to 20.25%, up 17.3 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 17.65%
The tracked probability rose to 17.65%, up 8.6 percentage points from 9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 18.1 percentage points from 21.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability falls to 41%
The tracked probability fell to 41%, down 5.0 percentage points from 46% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 8.25%
The tracked probability rose to 8.25%, up 5.3 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 16.75%
The tracked probability rose to 16.75%, up 14.2 percentage points from 2.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.5%
The tracked probability fell to 41.5%, down 7.1 percentage points from 48.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 48.15%
The tracked probability rose to 48.15%, up 6.7 percentage points from 41.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 11? — probability falls to 16.5%
The tracked probability fell to 16.5%, down 10.0 percentage points from 26.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Fernando Mendoza named Raiders starting QB by...?
- Plunge
Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above $1.35B? — probability falls to 22.5%
The tracked probability fell to 22.5%, down 4.0 percentage points from 26.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above __?
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 40.2%
The tracked probability fell to 40.2%, down 5.2 percentage points from 45.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 19? — probability falls to 11.5%
The tracked probability fell to 11.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 14.2 percentage points from 17.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.1%
The tracked probability fell to 38.1%, down 5.4 percentage points from 43.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will George Pickens have 1,199.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 57.5%
The tracked probability fell to 57.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 64.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: George Pickens 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 43.65%
The tracked probability fell to 43.65%, down 3.7 percentage points from 47.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $184 in October? — probability rises to 45%
The tracked probability rose to 45%, up 7.0 percentage points from 38% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 39.8%
The tracked probability rose to 39.8%, up 36.2 percentage points from 3.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $186 in October? — probability falls to 7.5%
The tracked probability fell to 7.5%, down 6.0 percentage points from 13.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 44.35%
The tracked probability fell to 44.35%, down 4.0 percentage points from 48.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 46.4%
The tracked probability rose to 46.4%, up 11.4 percentage points from 35.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 70.55%
The tracked probability fell to 70.55%, down 4.3 percentage points from 74.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.65%
The tracked probability fell to 3.65%, down 6.4 percentage points from 10.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will CeeDee Lamb have 1,399.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 52.5%
The tracked probability rose to 52.5%, up 8.5 percentage points from 44% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: CeeDee Lamb 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will Noe Khlif qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability falls to 18.5%
The tracked probability fell to 18.5%, down 6.0 percentage points from 24.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Men's)
- Plunge
Will Christian McCaffrey finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 10.25%
The tracked probability fell to 10.25%, down 28.1 percentage points from 38.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader