Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 81%
The tracked probability rose to 81%, up 3.5 percentage points from 77.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Surge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability rises to 58%
The tracked probability rose to 58%, up 6.5 percentage points from 51.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.45%
The tracked probability fell to 38.45%, down 7.7 percentage points from 46.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.75%
The tracked probability rose to 25.75%, up 22.2 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.95%
The tracked probability rose to 24.95%, up 12.3 percentage points from 12.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $184 in October? — probability rises to 49%
The tracked probability rose to 49%, up 36.5 percentage points from 12.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25%
The tracked probability rose to 25%, up 22.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Kevin Acton win the next Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly election? — probability falls to 72%
The tracked probability fell to 72%, down 4.0 percentage points from 76% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Vernon-Lumby British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner
- Surge
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 19? — probability rises to 23.5%
The tracked probability rose to 23.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 20% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?
- Surge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 45.35%
The tracked probability rose to 45.35%, up 39.8 percentage points from 5.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $5.5B? — probability falls to 53.5%
The tracked probability fell to 53.5%, down 14.0 percentage points from 67.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above __?
- Surge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 47.0 percentage points from 2.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability falls to 36.5%
The tracked probability fell to 36.5%, down 19.5 percentage points from 56% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Surge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 27.05%
The tracked probability rose to 27.05%, up 22.0 percentage points from 5.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 19.1 percentage points from 22.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on October 19? — probability rises to 96.45%
The tracked probability rose to 96.45%, up 43.0 percentage points from 53.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Chicago on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 25.2%
The tracked probability fell to 25.2%, down 6.7 percentage points from 31.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026? — probability rises to 50.5%
The tracked probability rose to 50.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 46% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 18.05%
The tracked probability fell to 18.05%, down 7.8 percentage points from 25.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.1 percentage points from 25.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.95%
The tracked probability fell to 17.95%, down 6.4 percentage points from 24.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 34%
The tracked probability fell to 34%, down 7.0 percentage points from 41% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Slavia Praha: Fenerbahçe SK O/U 5.5 — probability rises to 24%
The tracked probability rose to 24%, up 22.8 percentage points from 1.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Slavia Praha - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 19.15%
The tracked probability fell to 19.15%, down 6.8 percentage points from 25.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 8.1%
The tracked probability fell to 8.1%, down 6.8 percentage points from 14.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 41.5%
The tracked probability fell to 41.5%, down 3.9 percentage points from 45.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 15.15%
The tracked probability fell to 15.15%, down 6.8 percentage points from 21.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Getafe CF O/U 3.5 — probability falls to 19.7%
The tracked probability fell to 19.7%, down 3.8 percentage points from 23.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 35.5 percentage points from 38.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $204 in October? — probability rises to 57.5%
The tracked probability rose to 57.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 54% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 46.9 percentage points from 50.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 14.45%
The tracked probability fell to 14.45%, down 7.8 percentage points from 22.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Juwan Johnson have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 71.5%
The tracked probability fell to 71.5%, down 6.0 percentage points from 77.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Juwan Johnson 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Qingdao be 12°C on October 19? — probability rises to 97.5%
The tracked probability rose to 97.5%, up 20.5 percentage points from 77% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Qingdao on October 19?
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on October 19? — probability rises to 93.5%
The tracked probability rose to 93.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 89.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Tel Aviv on October 19?
- Plunge
Punjab FC vs. Mumbai City FC: O/U 7.5 — probability falls to 2.5%
The tracked probability fell to 2.5%, down 13.0 percentage points from 15.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Punjab FC vs. Mumbai City FC - More Markets
- Plunge
Punjab FC vs. Mumbai City FC: O/U 6.5 — probability falls to 2.5%
The tracked probability fell to 2.5%, down 13.0 percentage points from 15.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Punjab FC vs. Mumbai City FC - More Markets
- Surge
Will Nolan McLean win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 33%
The tracked probability rose to 33%, up 4.0 percentage points from 29% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on October 19? — probability rises to 97.5%
The tracked probability rose to 97.5%, up 11.0 percentage points from 86.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Chongqing on October 19?
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on October 19? — probability rises to 97.5%
The tracked probability rose to 97.5%, up 11.0 percentage points from 86.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Wuhan on October 19?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Lucknow be 20°C on October 19? — probability falls to 76.5%
The tracked probability fell to 76.5%, down 11.5 percentage points from 88% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Lucknow on October 19?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 19? — probability falls to 79%
The tracked probability fell to 79%, down 9.5 percentage points from 88.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 5.6%
The tracked probability fell to 5.6%, down 8.3 percentage points from 13.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 25.5%
The tracked probability rose to 25.5%, up 22.1 percentage points from 3.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.6%
The tracked probability rose to 45.6%, up 42.0 percentage points from 3.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 45.1%
The tracked probability rose to 45.1%, up 42.5 percentage points from 2.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Jalen Hurts have 199.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 20.5%
The tracked probability fell to 20.5%, down 11.5 percentage points from 32% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Rushing Yards
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 14.9%
The tracked probability fell to 14.9%, down 6.3 percentage points from 21.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader