Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $170 in October? — probability rises to 39.5%
The tracked probability rose to 39.5%, up 8.5 percentage points from 31% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.4%
The tracked probability fell to 12.4%, down 37.5 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will the biggest earthquake on October 19, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0? — probability rises to 99.45%
The tracked probability rose to 99.45%, up 37.5 percentage points from 61.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will the biggest earthquake be on October 19, 2026?
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.1 percentage points from 50.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.4 percentage points from 49.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.85%
The tracked probability rose to 24.85%, up 21.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.4%
The tracked probability fell to 12.4%, down 12.3 percentage points from 24.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.43% in October? — probability falls to 45%
The tracked probability fell to 45%, down 7.0 percentage points from 52% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.65%
The tracked probability fell to 41.65%, down 4.7 percentage points from 46.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 17.65%
The tracked probability fell to 17.65%, down 4.6 percentage points from 22.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will [link omitted], Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $268 Week of October 19 2026? — probability rises to 64.5%
The tracked probability rose to 64.5%, up 8.0 percentage points from 56.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 16 to October 23, 2026? — probability falls to 93%
The tracked probability fell to 93%, down 3.8 percentage points from 96.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Khamenei # posts October 16 - October 23, 2026?
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 33.55%
The tracked probability fell to 33.55%, down 4.6 percentage points from 38.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability rises to 13.5%
The tracked probability rose to 13.5%, up 5.0 percentage points from 8.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will "Pepas" by Farruko be on the radio in GTA VI at launch? — probability rises to 51%
The tracked probability rose to 51%, up 3.0 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Songs on GTA VI Radio at Launch?
- Plunge
Will SK hynix (SKHY) hit (LOW) $132 Week of October 19 2026? — probability falls to 25.5%
The tracked probability fell to 25.5%, down 4.5 percentage points from 30% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will SK hynix (SKHY) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 26.05%
The tracked probability fell to 26.05%, down 4.6 percentage points from 30.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 9.45%
The tracked probability fell to 9.45%, down 4.6 percentage points from 14.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 46.5%
The tracked probability rose to 46.5%, up 8.0 percentage points from 38.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 19.95%
The tracked probability fell to 19.95%, down 4.6 percentage points from 24.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability falls to 28.05%
The tracked probability fell to 28.05%, down 6.7 percentage points from 34.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 14.95%
The tracked probability fell to 14.95%, down 4.6 percentage points from 19.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Fnatic make a roster change by December? — probability rises to 93.05%
The tracked probability rose to 93.05%, up 5.8 percentage points from 87.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 37.25%
The tracked probability fell to 37.25%, down 4.3 percentage points from 41.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026? — probability rises to 85.5%
The tracked probability rose to 85.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 82.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
- Surge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $184 in October? — probability rises to 11.5%
The tracked probability rose to 11.5%, up 4.0 percentage points from 7.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability falls to 22.5%
The tracked probability fell to 22.5%, down 12.0 percentage points from 34.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 12.2%
The tracked probability fell to 12.2%, down 4.8 percentage points from 16.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 14.85%
The tracked probability fell to 14.85%, down 5.6 percentage points from 20.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Iran target an Arab country by October 22, 2026? — probability falls to 89.5%
The tracked probability fell to 89.5%, down 3.0 percentage points from 92.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
- Surge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 63%
The tracked probability rose to 63%, up 4.3 percentage points from 58.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $44 in October? — probability falls to 21.35%
The tracked probability fell to 21.35%, down 3.4 percentage points from 24.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of October 19 2026? — probability rises to 71.5%
The tracked probability rose to 71.5%, up 14.0 percentage points from 57.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Surge
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 4? — probability rises to 66.55%
The tracked probability rose to 66.55%, up 4.3 percentage points from 62.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 8°C on October 19? — probability falls to 75%
The tracked probability fell to 75%, down 20.0 percentage points from 95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Madrid on October 19?
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 46.5 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 46.7 percentage points from 3.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 23.4%
The tracked probability rose to 23.4%, up 20.3 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will William Eklund record 100+ points? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 22.6 percentage points from 25.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NHL: Players to Record 100+ Points
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 20? — probability rises to 98.85%
The tracked probability rose to 98.85%, up 8.9 percentage points from 90% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Warsaw on October 20?
- Surge
Ugo Humbert vs. Corentin Moutet: Total Sets O/U 2.5 — probability rises to 99.95%
The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 15.0 percentage points from 85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lyon Open: Ugo Humbert vs Corentin Moutet
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.6%
The tracked probability rose to 45.6%, up 42.5 percentage points from 3.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 24.9 percentage points from 25.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 45.05%
The tracked probability rose to 45.05%, up 19.8 percentage points from 25.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Florence: Sandro Kopp vs Gianluca Cadenasso — probability rises to 98.65%
The tracked probability rose to 98.65%, up 3.2 percentage points from 95.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Florence: Sandro Kopp vs Gianluca Cadenasso
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20? — probability falls to 52.8%
The tracked probability fell to 52.8%, down 4.6 percentage points from 57.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Istanbul on October 20?
- Plunge
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 19? — probability falls to 74.8%
The tracked probability fell to 74.8%, down 21.7 percentage points from 96.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Amsterdam on October 19?
- Plunge
Spread: Psim Yogyakarta (-3.5) — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 50.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. Psim Yogyakarta - More Markets
- Plunge
Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. Psim Yogyakarta: Psim Yogyakarta O/U 3.5 — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 50.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. Psim Yogyakarta - More Markets
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 49.6%
The tracked probability rose to 49.6%, up 46.8 percentage points from 2.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)