Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 6%
The tracked probability fell to 6%, down 19.6 percentage points from 25.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Surge
Will "Pragmata" win Ultimate Game of the Year at the 2026 Golden Joystick Awards? — probability rises to 10.1%
The tracked probability rose to 10.1%, up 7.1 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Golden Joystick Awards: Ultimate Game of the Year Winner
- Surge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 27.6%
The tracked probability rose to 27.6%, up 24.6 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 27.2%
The tracked probability rose to 27.2%, up 24.2 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate ann… — probability falls to 44.45%
The tracked probability fell to 44.45%, down 15.8 percentage points from 60.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Bank of Canada Decision in October?
- Surge
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate anno… — probability rises to 54.35%
The tracked probability rose to 54.35%, up 13.5 percentage points from 40.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Bank of Canada Decision in October?
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 45.1%
The tracked probability rose to 45.1%, up 41.9 percentage points from 3.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 23.85%
The tracked probability rose to 23.85%, up 6.0 percentage points from 17.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on October 19? — probability falls to 87.5%
The tracked probability fell to 87.5%, down 8.6 percentage points from 96.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in London on October 19?
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 20? — probability rises to 94%
The tracked probability rose to 94%, up 43.5 percentage points from 50.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Tokyo on October 20?
- Surge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.85%
The tracked probability rose to 49.85%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 50%
The tracked probability rose to 50%, up 47.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Jonathon Brooks finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability rises to 47.45%
The tracked probability rose to 47.45%, up 3.2 percentage points from 44.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Hannes Steinbach lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 27.95%
The tracked probability fell to 27.95%, down 21.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Exact Score: Isenmulang Kalteng FC 0 - 5 Java United FC? — probability falls to 0.45%
The tracked probability fell to 0.45%, down 49.5 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Isenmulang Kalteng FC vs. Java United FC - Exact Score
- Plunge
Will Deportivo Garcilaso be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.0 percentage points from 49.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 25.1%
The tracked probability rose to 25.1%, up 22.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 32.95%
The tracked probability fell to 32.95%, down 7.6 percentage points from 40.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 74.15%
The tracked probability fell to 74.15%, down 7.2 percentage points from 81.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will the biggest earthquake on October 20, 2026 be 6.1 or more? — probability falls to 75.1%
The tracked probability fell to 75.1%, down 12.7 percentage points from 87.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will the biggest earthquake be on October 20, 2026?
- Surge
Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 15, 2026? — probability rises to 49.5%
The tracked probability rose to 49.5%, up 6.0 percentage points from 43.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Shipping successfully targeted in Hormuz on...?
- Surge
Will Deft play for Nongshim RedForce in 2027? — probability rises to 92.15%
The tracked probability rose to 92.15%, up 5.2 percentage points from 86.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: LoL Offseason: Deft Next Team
- Plunge
Will Tucker Kraft finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 76.5%
The tracked probability fell to 76.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 80% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 33.65%
The tracked probability fell to 33.65%, down 7.5 percentage points from 41.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will P.J. Washington lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.9 percentage points from 25.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 49.95%
The tracked probability rose to 49.95%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.85%
The tracked probability rose to 49.85%, up 22.7 percentage points from 27.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 66.95%
The tracked probability rose to 66.95%, up 7.6 percentage points from 59.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Exact Score: Isenmulang Kalteng FC 3 - 1 Java United FC? — probability falls to 0.45%
The tracked probability fell to 0.45%, down 41.5 percentage points from 42% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Isenmulang Kalteng FC vs. Java United FC - Exact Score
- Plunge
Will Gavin Williams lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in strikeouts? — probability falls to 16.5%
The tracked probability fell to 16.5%, down 3.5 percentage points from 20% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB Postseason: Strikeout Leader
- Plunge
Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 89.55%
The tracked probability fell to 89.55%, down 9.4 percentage points from 98.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
- Surge
Will Michal Sadílek record the most assists in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? — probability rises to 12.9%
The tracked probability rose to 12.9%, up 10.6 percentage points from 2.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: UEFA Champions League: Most Assists 2026-27
- Surge
Will Moussa Diabate lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.05%
The tracked probability rose to 25.05%, up 22.1 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 47.0 percentage points from 50.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 42.3 percentage points from 45.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 81.35%
The tracked probability rose to 81.35%, up 4.6 percentage points from 76.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will Cailyn Campbell qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals? — probability falls to 10.45%
The tracked probability fell to 10.45%, down 3.9 percentage points from 14.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: 2027 PPA Tour Finals: Player to Qualify (Women's)
- Surge
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on October 19? — probability rises to 96.05%
The tracked probability rose to 96.05%, up 8.6 percentage points from 87.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in London on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.15%
The tracked probability fell to 41.15%, down 6.6 percentage points from 47.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Alec Pierce finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 1.7%
The tracked probability fell to 1.7%, down 6.4 percentage points from 8.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 36.5%
The tracked probability fell to 36.5%, down 4.1 percentage points from 40.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.5%
The tracked probability fell to 3.5%, down 23.4 percentage points from 26.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Fnatic make a roster change by December? — probability falls to 87.45%
The tracked probability fell to 87.45%, down 5.9 percentage points from 93.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which Teams Will Make a Roster Change Before December?
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.6%
The tracked probability fell to 41.6%, down 6.4 percentage points from 48% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 39.3%
The tracked probability fell to 39.3%, down 4.1 percentage points from 43.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 13.4%
The tracked probability fell to 13.4%, down 3.4 percentage points from 16.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will CoStar Group (CSGP) beat quarterly earnings? — probability falls to 0.75%
The tracked probability fell to 0.75%, down 5.0 percentage points from 5.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will CoStar Group (CSGP) beat quarterly earnings?