Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Next [link omitted] GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 34%
The tracked probability fell to 34%, down 7.5 percentage points from 41.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?
- Plunge
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy… — probability falls to 47.5%
The tracked probability fell to 47.5%, down 7.0 percentage points from 54.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
- Surge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability rises to 22.85%
The tracked probability rose to 22.85%, up 15.3 percentage points from 7.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will San Lorenzo be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 11.8%
The tracked probability fell to 11.8%, down 11.2 percentage points from 22.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability rises to 59.15%
The tracked probability rose to 59.15%, up 3.6 percentage points from 55.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 62.8%
The tracked probability rose to 62.8%, up 4.8 percentage points from 58% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 24.6%
The tracked probability fell to 24.6%, down 25.3 percentage points from 49.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.4%
The tracked probability fell to 12.4%, down 37.5 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Cusco FC be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 25.5%
The tracked probability rose to 25.5%, up 12.4 percentage points from 13.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Sporting Cristal be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 23%
The tracked probability rose to 23%, up 11.2 percentage points from 11.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 32.2%
The tracked probability rose to 32.2%, up 16.1 percentage points from 16.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability rises to 61%
The tracked probability rose to 61%, up 13.5 percentage points from 47.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Surge
Will "How to Write a Song About You" from Power Ballad be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy… — probability rises to 54.5%
The tracked probability rose to 54.5%, up 11.5 percentage points from 43% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations
- Plunge
Will Caleb Williams have 3,500+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 26%
The tracked probability fell to 26%, down 14.5 percentage points from 40.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 3,500+ Passing Yards
- Surge
Will Perpl launch a token by December 31, 2027? — probability rises to 39.5%
The tracked probability rose to 39.5%, up 9.0 percentage points from 30.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Perpl launch a token by ___?
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze have 10+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 7.4%
The tracked probability fell to 7.4%, down 4.2 percentage points from 11.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 10+ Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Will Jordan Love have 3,799.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 59%
The tracked probability fell to 59%, down 5.5 percentage points from 64.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jordan Love 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards
- Plunge
Will Makai Lemon have 649.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 11%
The tracked probability fell to 11%, down 9.5 percentage points from 20.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Makai Lemon 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards
- Plunge
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in October? — probability falls to 48%
The tracked probability fell to 48%, down 3.5 percentage points from 51.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
- Plunge
Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 76.15%
The tracked probability fell to 76.15%, down 4.3 percentage points from 80.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Plunge
Will Tuomas Iisalo win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 7.6%
The tracked probability fell to 7.6%, down 15.3 percentage points from 22.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability falls to 63.55%
The tracked probability fell to 63.55%, down 3.9 percentage points from 67.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Plunge
Will OXY play for Cloud9 in 2027? — probability falls to 12.25%
The tracked probability fell to 12.25%, down 6.0 percentage points from 18.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: VALORANT Offseason: OXY Next Team
- Surge
Will Michael McGreevy win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 45%
The tracked probability rose to 45%, up 4.0 percentage points from 41% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Will Alex Sarr lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.35%
The tracked probability fell to 12.35%, down 11.7 percentage points from 24.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above $31.6B? — probability rises to 86%
The tracked probability rose to 86%, up 11.0 percentage points from 75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will AT&T (T) Q3 total revenue be above __?
- Plunge
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability falls to 59%
The tracked probability fell to 59%, down 4.0 percentage points from 63% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?
- Surge
Will Mauricio Dubón win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability rises to 93.05%
The tracked probability rose to 93.05%, up 4.9 percentage points from 88.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Surge
Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)? — probability rises to 34.05%
The tracked probability rose to 34.05%, up 6.5 percentage points from 27.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: #3 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
- Surge
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of October 19 2026? — probability rises to 55%
The tracked probability rose to 55%, up 3.5 percentage points from 51.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit Week of October 19 2026?
- Plunge
Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election? — probability falls to 55.55%
The tracked probability fell to 55.55%, down 19.3 percentage points from 74.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Quebec General Election: PLQ # Seats?
- Surge
Will Josh Hart lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 5.5 percentage points from 44.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $182 in October? — probability falls to 14%
The tracked probability fell to 14%, down 13.5 percentage points from 27.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 19%
The tracked probability fell to 19%, down 18.8 percentage points from 37.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 17.2%
The tracked probability fell to 17.2%, down 11.4 percentage points from 28.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 19.25%
The tracked probability fell to 19.25%, down 19.1 percentage points from 38.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability rises to 30.95%
The tracked probability rose to 30.95%, up 5.4 percentage points from 25.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Surge
Will IFK Norrköping be promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden)? — probability rises to 58%
The tracked probability rose to 58%, up 4.7 percentage points from 53.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Superettan (Sweden): Team promoted to Allsvenskan (Sweden) (2026)
- Plunge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 17.5%
The tracked probability fell to 17.5%, down 14.3 percentage points from 31.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will LeBron James lead the NBA in points per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 12.4%
The tracked probability fell to 12.4%, down 12.7 percentage points from 25.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Points Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21? — probability rises to 55.15%
The tracked probability rose to 55.15%, up 16.2 percentage points from 38.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Highest temperature in Istanbul on October 21?
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability falls to 10.5%
The tracked probability fell to 10.5%, down 14.0 percentage points from 24.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 45.1%
The tracked probability rose to 45.1%, up 34.0 percentage points from 11.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.85%
The tracked probability rose to 49.85%, up 37.5 percentage points from 12.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.7%
The tracked probability rose to 24.7%, up 12.6 percentage points from 12.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 11.15%
The tracked probability fell to 11.15%, down 34.0 percentage points from 45.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Zhejiang be relegated from the 2026 Chinese Super League? — probability rises to 22.95%
The tracked probability rose to 22.95%, up 11.2 percentage points from 11.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Chinese Super League: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 25%
The tracked probability fell to 25%, down 24.9 percentage points from 49.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will the lowest temperature in Cape Town be 7°C on October 19? — probability falls to 54%
The tracked probability fell to 54%, down 40.0 percentage points from 94% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Lowest temperature in Cape Town on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 18.85%
The tracked probability fell to 18.85%, down 5.9 percentage points from 24.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader