Living market coverage
Prediction-market movement explanations
The newest sourced PolySays updates about meaningful odds changes, possible catalysts, unresolved signals, and what to watch next.
- Plunge
Will Brock Bowers have 11.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 41.6%
The tracked probability fell to 41.6%, down 5.8 percentage points from 47.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Brock Bowers 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
- Plunge
Bursaspor vs. Pendikspor: O/U 7.5 — probability falls to 0.45%
The tracked probability fell to 0.45%, down 36.1 percentage points from 36.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Bursaspor vs. Pendikspor - More Markets
- Plunge
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 38.9%
The tracked probability fell to 38.9%, down 7.8 percentage points from 46.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $180 in October? — probability falls to 15%
The tracked probability fell to 15%, down 3.0 percentage points from 18% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in October 2026?
- Plunge
Will Lanús be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3.1%
The tracked probability fell to 3.1%, down 47.3 percentage points from 50.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Surge
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $152 in October? — probability rises to 41.5%
The tracked probability rose to 41.5%, up 35.5 percentage points from 6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Nic Claxton lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.85%
The tracked probability rose to 49.85%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25%
The tracked probability rose to 25%, up 22.0 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Ivica Zubac lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 50.25%
The tracked probability rose to 50.25%, up 46.7 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 19? — probability falls to 53.1%
The tracked probability fell to 53.1%, down 42.8 percentage points from 95.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 19?
- Plunge
Will Noah Fant finish as a top-5 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 4.95%
The tracked probability fell to 4.95%, down 44.4 percentage points from 49.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Tigre be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 46.7 percentage points from 49.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Wendell Carter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3%
The tracked probability fell to 3%, down 22.1 percentage points from 25.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will J.B. Bickerstaff win the 2026-27 NBA Coach of the Year? — probability falls to 15.1%
The tracked probability fell to 15.1%, down 11.5 percentage points from 26.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Coach of the Year
- Plunge
Will Bucky Irving finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 8.85%
The tracked probability fell to 8.85%, down 13.8 percentage points from 22.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Justin Jefferson finish as a top-12 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability rises to 88.5%
The tracked probability rose to 88.5%, up 24.0 percentage points from 64.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring WRs
- Surge
Will Perpl launch a token by December 31, 2027? — probability rises to 41.5%
The tracked probability rose to 41.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 38% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Will Perpl launch a token by ___?
- Surge
Paris curfew by October 31? — probability rises to 98.95%
The tracked probability rose to 98.95%, up 3.4 percentage points from 95.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Paris curfew announced by...?
- Surge
Will Lynn Vision Gaming qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026? — probability rises to 49.45%
The tracked probability rose to 49.45%, up 15.5 percentage points from 33.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Which teams will qualify to PGL Major Singapore 2026?
- Plunge
Will Le Havre finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season? — probability falls to 41.15%
The tracked probability fell to 41.15%, down 8.0 percentage points from 49.15% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Ligue 1 Top 4 Finishers (2026-27)
- Plunge
Will Michael Porter Jr. lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 45.0 percentage points from 48.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Neemias Queta lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 25.2%
The tracked probability rose to 25.2%, up 22.2 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Zach Edey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 28.45%
The tracked probability rose to 28.45%, up 11.7 percentage points from 16.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will DK Metcalf finish as a top-5 WR in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 3.05%
The tracked probability fell to 3.05%, down 42.3 percentage points from 45.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 5 Scoring WRs
- Plunge
Will DJ Moore finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 25%
The tracked probability fell to 25%, down 7.9 percentage points from 32.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rudy Gobert lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability falls to 10.55%
The tracked probability fell to 10.55%, down 19.2 percentage points from 29.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Alianza Lima be relegated from the 2026 Peru Liga 1? — probability rises to 11.9%
The tracked probability rose to 11.9%, up 8.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Peru Liga 1: Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will DeVonta Smith finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 12.4%
The tracked probability fell to 12.4%, down 6.8 percentage points from 19.2% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Rashee Rice finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 41.25%
The tracked probability fell to 41.25%, down 6.8 percentage points from 48.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Kyle Pitts Sr. finish as a top-12 TE in the 2026-27 NFL season? — probability falls to 30.05%
The tracked probability fell to 30.05%, down 20.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 Top 12 Scoring TEs
- Plunge
Will Emeka Egbuka finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 27.15%
The tracked probability fell to 27.15%, down 6.7 percentage points from 33.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will Quinshon Judkins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 26.2%
The tracked probability fell to 26.2%, down 6.9 percentage points from 33.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Trump's approval rating hit 39% by June 30, 2027? — probability rises to 58%
The tracked probability rose to 58%, up 8.5 percentage points from 49.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Trump's approval rating hit by June 30, 2027?
- Surge
Will Walker Kessler lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.9%
The tracked probability rose to 24.9%, up 12.6 percentage points from 12.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Jalen Hurts have 2,749.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? — probability falls to 6.5%
The tracked probability fell to 6.5%, down 4.0 percentage points from 10.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: Jalen Hurts 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards
- Plunge
Will Omarion Hampton finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 23.1%
The tracked probability fell to 23.1%, down 6.9 percentage points from 30% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 24.85%
The tracked probability rose to 24.85%, up 21.3 percentage points from 3.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Will Rome Odunze finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 34%
The tracked probability fell to 34%, down 6.9 percentage points from 40.95% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Plunge
Will A.J. Brown finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most scrimmage yards? — probability falls to 16.8%
The tracked probability fell to 16.8%, down 6.8 percentage points from 23.6% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Pro Football: 2026-27 Scrimmage Yards Leader
- Surge
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 54.5%
The tracked probability rose to 54.5%, up 13.5 percentage points from 41% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by...?
- Plunge
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $204 in October? — probability falls to 62%
The tracked probability fell to 62%, down 3.0 percentage points from 65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in October 2026?
- Surge
Will Independiente be relegated from the 2026 Liga Profesional (Argentina)? — probability rises to 45.5%
The tracked probability rose to 45.5%, up 42.4 percentage points from 3.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Liga Profesional (Argentina): Teams relegated (2026)
- Plunge
Will Nolan McLean win a 2026 NL Gold Glove Award? — probability falls to 19%
The tracked probability fell to 19%, down 12.0 percentage points from 31% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: MLB: 2026 NL Gold Glove Winners
- Plunge
Spread: FK Tukums 2000/TSS (-3.5) — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 50.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. The cause of this move is not established.
Market: FC RFS vs. FK Tukums 2000/TSS - More Markets
- Plunge
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31? — probability falls to 54%
The tracked probability fell to 54%, down 6.0 percentage points from 60% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of October 31
- Volume
CA San Telmo vs. CA Defensores de Belgrano: O/U 5.5 — probability holds at 1%
Probability remained at 1%. Reported rolling 24-hour volume changed from $432 to $1,209.66. The cause is not established.
Market: CA San Telmo vs. CA Defensores de Belgrano - More Markets
- Surge
Will Mitchell Robinson lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 50.35%
The tracked probability rose to 50.35%, up 46.8 percentage points from 3.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Surge
Will Josh Giddey lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27? — probability rises to 49.9%
The tracked probability rose to 49.9%, up 46.9 percentage points from 3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: NBA: 2026-27 Rebounds Per Game Leader
- Plunge
Esenler Erokspor vs. Mardin 1969 Spor: O/U 8.5 — probability falls to 0.45%
The tracked probability fell to 0.45%, down 38.6 percentage points from 39.1% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Esenler Erokspor vs. Mardin 1969 Spor - More Markets
- Plunge
Esenler Erokspor vs. Mardin 1969 Spor: O/U 6.5 — probability falls to 6.95%
The tracked probability fell to 6.95%, down 5.4 percentage points from 12.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Market: Esenler Erokspor vs. Mardin 1969 Spor - More Markets