This market will resolve to "Yes" if a curfew is officially announced in any part of the City of Paris, France between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time.
Current leader
100%
100%
4 outcomes
Paris curfew by October 19?
Paris curfew by October 21?
Paris curfew by October 24?
Paris curfew by October 31?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 98.95%, up 3.4 percentage points from 95.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 96% → 99%
+3.4 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 98.95%, up 3.4 percentage points from 95.55% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 95.55% to 98.95% (+3.4 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T17:32:40.438Z to 2026-10-19T18:02:21.262Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 95.55% → 98.95%
Probability moved from 95.55% to 98.95% (+3.4 percentage points). Observations were 29 minutes 41 seconds apart: 2026-10-19 17:32:40 UTC to 2026-10-19 18:02:21 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a curfew is officially announced in any part of the City of Paris, France between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Paris, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours.
A qualifying curfew may be citywide or limited to specific arrondissements or neighborhoods of Paris, and must be officially declared by the City of Paris, the Paris Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police), or a French national authority. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not qualify.
Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not qualify unless they also impose a curfew as defined above. Any qualifying curfew which is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris local time will count regardless of if or when it goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Paris curfew by October 31? — probability rises to 98.95%
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